SEVERE STORMS LIKELY MIDWEEK; RAIN AHEAD FOR MONDAY EVENING… Our next round of active weather is slated to happen midweek with strong to severe storms again becoming possible across much of the Deep South. Wednesday evening into Thursday morning looks to be the core timeframe when severe weather will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida. We will be able to get more specific tomorrow, but as of now, early indications point to a few tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, hail, and potentially significant flash flooding to our north across the central and northern parts of Alabama. This will definitely be a week that you want to check back with me multiple times each day as we get toward Thursday morning. I will have many updates over the next few days. Let’s talk details.
FEW SHOWERS IN WEST ALABAMA OVERNIGHT… We’re tracking a few showers happening across east Mississippi on this Sunday evening that will gradually move into west Alabama over the next several hours. Temperatures are in the 50s this evening and most spots are headed to an overnight low near 54° by 6AM on Monday. Rain chances will be low, but not entirely zero, overnight. I expect rain chances to gradually increase throughout the day on Monday.
The information below is review information from my earlier forecast discussion today. This info remains on target and has been lightly edited.
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY… Rain will be increasingly likely on Monday as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop across the region. We’ll call it a 30% chance of showers in the morning hours. There could be a few general (likely well under severe limits) thunderstorms involved Monday afternoon, especially across inland counties. While you may hear some thunder and see some lightning in addition to the intermittent rain, any severe storms that happen on Monday will probably occur over central Mississippi into north and west Alabama. High temperatures on Monday will be in the low-70s. Rain chances will remain elevated Monday night into Tuesday across south Alabama and northwest Florida. You’ll really feel the warm, unstable air building into our region on Tuesday as high temperatures soar into the upper-70s. The air will be humid, thick, and warm. The moisture will be one “severe weather ingredient” that is plentiful with our severe weather setup Wednesday into Thursday.
LEVEL 1, LOW-END RISK TO OUR NORTH ON MONDAY… The Storm Prediction Center has included much of central Mississippi and parts of north and west Alabama in their Level 1 (out of 5), low-end, marginal severe weather risk valid for Monday. The main concern is gusty winds that could knock down a few trees, small hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. In Alabama, this risk zone includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Livingston, Eutaw, Marion, Centreville, Fayette, Jasper, Hamilton, Russellville, Double Springs, Aliceville, and surrounding areas. Keep in mind, this is a totally different risk than the “main event” severe weather risk coming up on Wednesday into early Thursday.
SEVERE WEATHER FATIGUE IS REAL… I understand that people get tired of hearing about risk levels and upcoming severe weather. “Forecast fatigue” is definitely something I consider when disseminating information. You have my word that as soon as the active weather pattern is done, we won’t bombard you with alerts and long, detailed posts. However, it is certainly not a common event (a few times per year) to have an enhanced Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk in place 3-4 days out. We have to stay ahead of these events as lives are on the line. The last two significant severe weather events across Alabama (January 11 and last week, February 5-6) were deadly. People in Pickens County and Marengo County have lost their lives because they were in a tornado and in a manufactured home. This is a major problem across our state and across the Deep South and we must do EVERYTHING we can to prevent these totally preventable deaths. Please do not become complacent and think you’re immune to severe weather events. I’m not, you’re not, we all are not. Please be prepared and please help me pass the word along to people that may not be as “weather aware” as you are.
LEVEL 3 RISK FOR NORTH & WEST ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY… SPC has taken the uncommon step of introducing a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk 3-4 days out from this severe weather potential. Much of north and west Alabama in addition to much of central Mississippi is included in this risk zone. Locally, northern parts of Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama are involved in this zone meaning the following communities have the highest severe weather risk for Wednesday into Thursday: Thomasville, Coffeeville, Millry, Gilbertown, Silas, Toxey, Sweet Water, Dixons Mills, and surrounding areas. This Level 3 risk also includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Huntsville, Decatur, Hamilton, Jasper, Selma, Marion, Greensboro, Livingston, Demopolis, Cullman, Russellville, Haleyville, Oneonta, Hoover, Helena, Alabaster, Homewood, Bessemer, Leeds, Gardendale, Aliceville, Boaz, Fayette, and surrounding areas. This risk also includes Jackson (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), McComb (MS), and Starkville (MS).
LEVEL 2 RISK FOR MUCH OF LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY… Other than the areas in northern Clarke and Washington counties in west Alabama, the rest of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk where scattered severe storms may happen. This includes Mobile, Pensacola, Andalusia, Greenville, Brewton, Atmore, Monroeville, Evergreen, Daphne, Fairhope, Orange Beach, Milton, Pace, Navarre, and ALL of our local area.
MAJOR RAIN EVENT AHEAD FOR NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA… Flash flooding will be a concern over the next week across the northern half of Alabama as multiple areas of low pressure cause a prolonged heavy rain event. For now, it seems like the core flash flooding risk will happen along and north of U.S. Highway 80. This means that much of south Alabama and northwest Florida will have 0.5” to 2” of rain in total, with isolated higher amounts. Our forecast calls for a chance of rain each day starting Monday and ending Saturday for our local area, although rain amounts should remain below hazardous/flash flooding values.
SET UP APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
MONDAY SCHEDULE… We will be in somewhat of a modified video production schedule on Monday. I’ll have a detailed forecast update posted by 7:15AM with your next video tomorrow EVENING around 8PM. Let me know if you have any specific weather-related questions.
Have a good night!