7:10PM February 11, 2020

SEVERE WEATHER RISK NOW A BIT LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT… The overall severe weather risk for Wednesday night into Thursday has lessened somewhat as the Storm Prediction Center now includes much of our area in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk. This means that an isolated severe storm or two may happen but the overall threat is much lower than it once was a few days ago. Parts of west and central Alabama remain involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) risk, but even in those zones, the risk has gone down considerably. The risk has decreased, but what are we expecting? In short, rain and maybe some gusty winds. We can’t rule out an isolated tornado or two but widespread severe weather now seems more unlikely across our local area. Much cooler air is on the way for Thursday into Friday. Let’s look at your Tuesday evening forecast details.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING… There have been areas of showers this evening across the region. At the time this video is being produced at 7PM, showers are happening in parts of Butler, Conecuh, Monroe, Baldwin, and northern Mobile counties. You might hear a clap of thunder overnight, but widespread severe weather is not expected and I expect most of the storms to remain elevated with heavy rain being the main concern.

UPDATED: LOW-END, LEVEL 1 RISK FOR MOST ACROSS OUR AREA… Earlier today, SPC trimmed much of our area OUT of the higher risk zones. This leaves a big chunk of our region in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This includes much of Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Butler, Covington, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties involved in this lower-end risk area. Here are a few of the communities involved in this risk zone: Mobile, Pensacola, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Opp, Andalusia, Florala, Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Evergreen, Castleberry, Repton, Fairhope, Bay Minette, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Dauphin Island, Wilmer, Century, Walnut Hill, Molino, Warrington, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Berrydale, Munson, Allentown, Destin, Crestview, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, and Baker. This low-end risk zone also includes Dothan, Enterprise, Geneva, Samson, Daleville, Abbeville, Troy, Montgomery, Luverne, Auburn, Alex City, Wetumpka, Valley, Roanoke, and Heflin.

UPDATED: LEVEL 3 RISK REMOVED… SPC took out the Level 3 enhanced severe weather risk that was in place for parts of west Alabama and Mississippi, primarily because the overall risk appears to be lower due to the limited amount of atmospheric instability expected to be in place across the Deep South. All of the areas formerly included in the Level 3 risk are now in the lower, Level 2 risk zone (discussed below).

UPDATED: LEVEL 2 RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA… Locally, much of Clarke, Washington, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk zone. This is where scattered severe storms will be possible. This includes Thomasville, Coffeeville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Chatom, Wagerville, Millry, Camden, Pine Hill, Butler, Pennington, Gilbertown, Toxey, and surrounding areas. This Level 2 risk also includes places in central and north Alabama: Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Gadsden, Anniston, Clanton, Centreville, Marion, Selma, Demopolis, Carrollton, Vernon, Hamilton, Russellville, Decatur, Moulton, Huntsville, Muscle Shoals, Florence, Boaz, Ft. Payne, Oneonta, Double Springs, Jasper, Scottsboro, and surrounding areas.

WHAT TO EXPECT – WEDNESDAY MORNING & EARLY AFTERNOON… Scattered showers are likely to increase in number Wednesday morning into the early afternoon hours. There could be an isolated, general thunderstorm (below severe limits) before 5PM. Most spots will probably remain dry into the early evening hours. High temperatures will again be way too warm for mid-Feburary. Most spots will top out in the 78-81° range.

SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… We have refined the projected timeline for this severe weather potential today. 9PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday will be the nine hour window when severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA… Significant flash flooding happened Monday across much of central and north Alabama. Some spots had over a month’s worth of rain fall in less than 12 hours! A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for much of central and north Alabama, including Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, and Gadsden due to more rain likely through Thursday. If you’re traveling northbound into these areas, be aware of this potential. It won’t take much rain to cause more flash flooding!

MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN ON THURSDAY… After the storms on Thursday morning, much cooler, drier air is set to move in behind an advancing cold front. Temperatures will actually be deceasing throughout the day on Thursday. Around 5AM, most spots will be near 70, but we will quickly fall into the 50s by mid-afternoon.

NICE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Full sunshine is set to return on Friday as high temperatures drop to near 60 degrees. The sunshine won’t be long-lived, unfortunately, as rain will come back into the forecast late on Saturday into Sunday. The good news is much of the daytime hours on Saturday should remain dry.

NEXT DETAILED UPDATE TOMORROW MORNING… I will have another video update posted by 7:15AM on Wednesday. Until then, be sure to check out my updates tonight in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any questions!

SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.

Have a great Tuesday evening!

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