LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK TODAY; SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK ON WEDNESDAY… Multiple waves of potentially severe weather are ahead, including a low-end risk of tornadoes this afternoon/evening and a slightly higher severe weather risk setting up for Wednesday. In addition to the potential for tornadoes and damaging wind gusts, we’re also going to be monitoring rain rates as 3 to 4 inches of rain may fall over the next 48 hours across south Alabama and parts of northwest Florida. We encourage everyone to have a way to receive urgent weather warnings today, tonight, and especially on Wednesday when we have a slightly higher risk of strong to severe storms that will be capable of producing brief tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The active weather and heavy rain will finally clear out on Thursday during the middle part of the day, paving the way for Friday and Saturday to be dry and seasonal. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK INLAND TODAY… There is a low-end chance that some of the storms that fire up later today into tonight could briefly become strong or severe. That is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included much of the northern half of our region in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for this afternoon into tonight. The concern is that we may have a brief tornado or two in addition to damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.
HAZARD PLACEMENT TODAY: INLAND… SPC maintains a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk for inland parts of south Alabama today. If you’re in Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, or Crenshaw counties, you are involved in this low-end risk. This includes Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Repton, Range, Lenox, Owassa, Evergreen, Castleberry, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Brewton, East Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Chatom, Fruitdale, McIntosh, Wagerville, Leroy, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Greenville, Georgiana, Forest Home, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, River Falls, Opp, Straughn, and surrounding areas.
WHAT TO EXPECT TODAY – STORMS AT TIMES… Intermittent showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on this Tuesday. I expect the coverage of showers and storms to ramp up as we get into the afternoon and evening hours when storms have more instability in place. Temperatures today will surge into the mid- to upper-70s as warm, moist, Gulf air is transported in from the south.
STORMS FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT… Storms may linger into the evening hours, but I expect an overall lull in storms overnight. Rain and storm coverage will increase as we move toward dawn on Wednesday. As a course of least regret, I would have a way to receive urgent weather warnings overnight just in case we have a rogue storm or two ramp up, but I certainly am not expecting widespread issues in the overnight hours.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY… Coastal areas in Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for tomorrow (Wednesday, March 4) in the latest SPC convective outlook. There is a concern that a warm front may lift far enough inland/northward that part of our area near the immediate coast may be in the warm sector. This would allow strong to severe storms to happen, primarily in areas near the coast. Inland areas are involved in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone on Wednesday due to a chance of hail in the stronger storms.
TORNADO RISK NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY… The tornado risk tomorrow (Wednesday) will be conditional upon a warm front lifting northward into our area. There is still a chance, based on some model guidance, that the warm front may remain offshore, thus limiting the overall chance of severe weather. If you are in Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, you are involved in this slightly higher Level 2 risk area valid for Wednesday. This includes areas near Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Bay Minette, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Creola, Pensacola, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Baker, and surrounding areas.
HEAVY RAIN & ALL DAY WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY… Regardless of if your particular location has severe weather issues on Wednesday, there is a VERY high chance of rain across our area. It is pretty uncommon for me to say a day has a chance to be an “all day washout,” but Wednesday fits the qualifications for that. Heavy rain will be possible throughout the day. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially for inland areas of south Alabama. I expect temperatures to be stuck in the mid-60s all day Wednesday, except in areas near the coast that may be south of the warm front. Beach communities may have temperatures as high as the mid-70s Wednesday afternoon.
RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING, DRIER IN EVENING… Rain will continue Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Model guidance has been consistent in suggesting rain will taper off midday on Thursday from west to east.
BETTER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY… Sunshine finally returns on Friday into Saturday and Sunday! High temperatures each day will be in the mid- to upper-60s with morning lows around 40 degrees. Unfortunately, it appears this dry streak will be short-lived as more rain is in the forecast as we go into Monday of the upcoming week.
ONE YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF BEAUREGARD TORNADO… Today marks the one year anniversary of the EF4 violent tornado that affected southern Lee County, Alabama near Beauregard and Smiths Station. 23 people lost their lives and 97 people were injured due to that powerful tornado that was part of a larger tornado outbreak. We also had three, distinct EF1 tornadoes in our local area – two in Washington County and one in Butler County. We had long form live video coverage during this tornado outbreak one year ago. Go to the 36-minute mark in the video to see the tornado emergency coverage here.
NASHVILLE TORNADO THIS MORNING… Our thoughts and prayers are with the many people affected directly and indirectly by the significant tornado that tore through Nashville, Tennessee around 1AM this morning. Damage photos out of Nashville paint a scene suggesting a long-track, violent tornado happened.
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
See all the graphics and details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Enjoy the day!