SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TUESDAY; WARM TODAY & MONDAY… Warm, dry conditions are in place on this Sunday across our region, but the focus is now on Tuesday when we could have a few strong to severe thunderstorms move across our area. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be the main concerns in any of the storms that can ramp up to severe levels. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include nearly all of our local area (other than communities right on the Alabama-Mississippi state line in west Alabama) in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk. This means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible Tuesday, primarily in the daytime hours. Before we get to Tuesday, we have warm temperatures happening now and more warmth ahead for your Monday. There are some abnormal considerations we have to plan for during this upcoming severe weather potential, in terms of the tornado warning sheltering guidelines and COVID-19 social distancing guidelines. Please see the paragraph (and separate linked post in the paragraph) below about that. Let’s look at all of the forecast specifics.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING… Nearly all of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will remain dry and warm on this Monday. There are a few areas of sprinkles happening to our north across central Alabama but I expect any rain that happens today to remain light and isolated. Temperatures are peaking now in the mid-80s across the region. We’ll be in the 80s through 6PM with 70s on the board through 10PM.
MAINLY DRY & WARM ON MONDAY… Clouds will continue to increase in coverage across the region ahead of the potential for rain and storms Monday night into Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday will peak in the mid-80s. There will inevitably be some peeks of sunshine throughout the day, meaning we won’t be completely under 100% cloud cover all day.
SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT… Isolated showers will become possible on Monday evening after 7PM across west Alabama. I expect rain coverage to progressively increase throughout the night into Tuesday. Rain amounts probably won’t be very high at all on Monday night with most spots getting less than a tenth of an inch of rain in total over the western part of Alabama.
UPDATED: TUESDAY – SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… 6AM to 4PM is the ten hour window in which strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida, with the core risk being from 9AM to 2PM. We encourage everyone to have multiple ways to receive urgent weather warnings before you go to sleep on Monday night just in case isolated storms get an early start.
LEVEL 2 RISK – LOCATIONS INVOLVED… Nearly all of us in south Alabama and northwest Florida are involved. Basically a line from Columbus (Georgia) to Montgomery to Selma to Chatom and points south to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches are included. ALL parts of these counties are included in the risk zone: Monroe, Baldwin, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Butler, Wilcox, Covington, Crenshaw, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton, in addition to all counties in southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In addition, parts of Mobile, Clarke, and Washington counties in west Alabama are included in the risk zone, including the cities of Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Jackson, Grove Hill, and Thomasville.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR LOCAL AREA… When a Level 2 (out of 5) risk is in place, that means that scattered instances of severe thunderstorms are possible, including the potential for isolated intense thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. MOST times when we have a Level 2 (out of 5) slight risk in place, we simply do not have major issues. There have been times, however, when big issues have happened on Level 2-type days. Take the Century-Flomaton EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016. That was a Level 2 risk day. That is certainly not the NORM for a Level 2 risk day, but it just goes to show that intense thunderstorms CAN happen.
COVID-19 AND TORNADO WARNING GUIDELINES… We’re in a strange time when the guidelines on what to do during a tornado warning versus what to do regarding social distancing because of COVID-19 may seem to conflict. If you, your family, or your friends use a community underground storm shelter, please take the opportunity to read the recommended guidelines established by our local National Weather Service offices and the state health department. Basically, the tornado warning takes precedence over social distancing when/if necessary as the tornado is the more immediate threat. Here is the post outlining all of that.
COOLER, DRIER AIR ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT… The reason we have a chance of severe storms on Tuesday is partly because of the forcing caused by the advancing cold front that will be moving into our area on Tuesday evening. This front will bring cooler, drier air into our region by Tuesday night.
NICE, SEASONAL, & DRY WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY… Nicer, slightly cooler, and drier conditions will be in place for Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures will drop into the mid-70s by Wednesday with overnight lows falling into the mid- to upper-50s. Mostly sunny skies are likely Wednesday with partly cloudy skies on Thursday.
MORE RAIN & STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY… There could be a few showers ahead of an area of low pressure inching closer to our area on Friday. Rain chances will rise as we go into next weekend with a chance of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday. It is too early to talk specifics on that system, but it is late March and early April (heart of severe weather season!), meaning we need to watch this system closely. I’ll have more details about this once we get through the active weather on Tuesday.
SET UP APP ALERTS TODAY… Now is the time, before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… My next detailed video update and long form text discussion will be posted on Monday morning no later than 7:15AM. Before we get to that, I’ll have quite a few updates this evening into tonight and Monday morning in the RedZone Weather app. Let me know if you have any weather-related questions.
CARDS FOR THE ELDERLY… Please don’t forget to take advantage of our new RedZone Weather Cards for the Elderly program. We want to be able to safely send as many encouraging cards as possible to our local senior adults in nursing homes. Be sure to visit the link below for all the information. This is an opportunity for students and adults across our region to write encouraging notes to elderly people currently under lockdown in local nursing homes due to the ongoing COVID-19 situation. Here is the link.
Have a nice Sunday evening!