RZW EXEC: SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE SUNDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Wednesday evening! I hope all of you remain healthy and well. While we have multiple rounds of active weather likely over the next few days, I am growing increasingly concerned about the severe weather risk setting up for Easter Sunday, April 12. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has already highlighted all of our local area and much of the Deep South in their Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone for Sunday. Keep in mind that a risk level that far out indicates a high confidence that severe weather will happen. It does not necessarily indicate intensity of storms, but there is now a high confidence that we will have severe weather issues on Sunday. SPC indicates that further outlook upgrades are expected, although it is too early to project what specific areas will contend with the greater issues. The big takeaway is that we want everyone to be aware of a potentially significant severe weather setup for Sunday.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH – RIGHT NOW… The overall severe weather risk for today has increased slightly since this morning. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for Monroe, Clarke, Conecuh, and Butler counties locally. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are the concerns today with the overall tornado risk being very, very low.
Overview: Severe thunderstorms are likely across the Deep South on Sunday. The chance of tornadoes and damaging winds continues to increase. There is a chance that this could be a significant severe weather outbreak, although more data is needed to increase confidence in that idea.
Threat Level: Level 2 (out of 5) risk for now, meaning scattered instances of severe storms will be possible. Further outlook upgrades are possible over the next few days.
Where: ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. We note much of central Alabama is also involved.
When: It is a bit too early to be specific, but the general consensus points to the severe weather risk being greatest from Saturday evening to midday Sunday. We will be able to get more specific in the days ahead.
Risks: All modes of severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.
I will begin publishing this information publicly in the next few hours. As always, please let me know if you have any questions or have specific decision support needs. Thank you!
Below is the public, long form post that will debut this evening.
SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… The Storm Prediction Center has posted an uncommon risk zone 4-5 days out from now valid for Easter Sunday, April 12, 2020 when severe weather, including tornadoes, damaging straight line winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. It is too early to know anything highly detailed about specific hazard placement and timing, although tornadoes and damaging winds seem increasingly likely based on increasing convergent model agreement. Outlook upgrades and changes are expected in the days ahead. Be sure to check back with me over the next few days as this threat continues to evolve. There is a chance this could be a significant round of severe weather.
DEEP TROUGH & WARM SECTOR LIKELY… You may be wondering how and why the Storm Prediction Center posts an outlook like this so far out. SPC uses multiple weather models and simulations to help better understand the possibilities of what could happen across the continental United States for any given day. Model guidance has been consistent enough to warrant an “early red flag,” suggesting there is a growing potential for the outlooked areas to have severe weather. A trough in the jet stream will dip down across the Great Plains and ultimately move eastward. Combine that with the warm, unstable air that will likely be in place across our region on Sunday, and you get a recipe of ingredients coming together that could produce weather hazards, including tornadoes.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
Have a nice evening!