DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SETUP ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT… Strong, long-track tornadoes will be possible on Easter Sunday across the Deep South. I realize our usual extremely detailed, long posts can feel overwhelming to some folks, so this post is designed to be much shorter and more concise. Projected Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) values continue to rise across Alabama and northwest Florida, as depicted in the graphic attached from the 18z run of the North American Model. Be ready for warnings on Sunday! Below is the concise, yet detailed update as of 4:15PM Friday.
THREAT SUMMARY… Strong tornadoes will become possible across parts of the Deep South, including across our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, on Sunday into Sunday night in what will likely be a significant severe weather outbreak. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will also be possible.
CURRENT THREAT LEVEL… Level 4 (out of 5) risk for Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties in west Alabama. Level 3 (out of 5) risk for all other counties in south Alabama and northwest Florida. Note that regardless of the risk level or color, this is a substantial severe weather risk across the entire region. Further outlook upgrades or modifications are possible over the next 36 hours.
LOCATIONS INVOLVED… ALL of south Alabama and ALL of northwest Florida are involved in this risk zone. The greatest risk of very dangerous, long-track tornadoes will happen over west Alabama locally. The atmosphere will be quite volatile and unstable across the entire region, thus we cannot rule out the possibility of multiple strong tornadoes locally. Again, don’t get caught up in a risk color/number. This is a significant threat across the entire region.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING… This has been revised slightly since this morning. 3PM Sunday to 3AM Monday will be the 12 hour window when storms will be most likely to happen. 5PM to 10PM will be the core risk time for south Alabama and northwest Florida.
POTENTIAL HAZARDS… Multiple strong, potentially long-track, tornadoes are the main concern. All modes of severe weather, including damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.
BE READY… Tornado helmets or makeshift helmets are absolutely critical in a severe weather event like this. NOW is the time to make a severe weather plan. More info here.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will be bringing you a live severe weather update this evening around 7:30PM. Please join us for that as we discuss, in detail, what you can expect for Sunday into Sunday night. see you then!