70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING THIS WEEKEND… The National Hurricane Center says on this Tuesday evening that there is a 70 percent chance that a tropical storm or subtropical storm will form north of the Bahamas and east of Florida in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. These chances have increased from a 50% chance this morning. The good news is regardless of if this system develops into a named system (first name on the naming list this year is “Arthur”), it likely won’t bring direct effects to the continental United States. This will be the SIXTH consecutive year when the Atlantic Hurricane Season has started before June 1 due to the development of a named system IF this area of low pressure takes a name. See more details below.
LATEST INFO FROM NHC… The National Hurricane Center issued this discussion as of 7PM CDT on Tuesday: “A broad area of low pressure is expected to develop late this week or early this weekend a couple of hundred miles north of the Bahamas. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a subtropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend while it moves northeastward over the western Atlantic.”
6TH CONSECUTIVE YEAR OF PRESEASON ACTIVITY… Last year (2019), Subtropical Storm Andrea flared up in late May in the same area of the Atlantic Ocean where this tropical low is expected to form this weekend. In 2018, Tropical Storm Alberto formed in late May in the western Caribbean Sea before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Laguna Beach in Bay County. In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene formed April 19 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean before quickly fizzling out. Hurricane Alex formed in January of 2016 in the open waters of the Atlantic with Tropical Storm Bonnie forming in May of 2016 near the Carolinas. Ana was a tropical storm that formed in May of 2015 that made landfall in South Carolina. Way back in 2014 was the last time we did not have a tropical storm or subtropical storm before June 1. The first storm in 2014 was Hurricane Arthur that formed as a tropical storm on July 1.
TIME TO RETHINK THE START OF HURRICANE SEASON… The examples listed above join a handful of other preseason May tropical storms. While we clearly need more data to support this idea in the years ahead, perhaps it is time to at least begin a discussion on moving the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May 15 instead of June 1. That would be in line when the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) hurricane season kicks off every year on May 15. May tropical storms are certainly not unprecedented, but they appear to be becoming more common, especially in the last few years. Six years in a row, to be exact!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I’ll have the latest on this potential tropical system in the morning video on Wednesday. That will be posted by 7:15AM. See you then!