WARM WEDNESDAY; MID-MAY TROPICAL MISCHIEF IN ATLANTIC… Mostly sunny skies are likely across the region on this Wednesday. We are watching a developing area of low pressure near The Bahamas that will gradually move north over the warm waters of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 70-80% chance this system will become a pre-season tropical storm or subtropical storm this weekend. The good news is this system will never come close to Alabama or northwest Florida. Regardless of if formal tropical development happens, the system is expected to move out into the open waters of Atlantic. Locally, we have rain and storms being possible (not associated with the developing tropical system) this weekend. Rain chances will be pretty low (20-30%) but there will be isolated downpours involved, especially on Saturday. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE EAST OF FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND… Yesterday morning, the National Hurricane Center issued a special Tropical Weather Outlook indicating there is now a potential we could see an area of low pressure near The Bahamas strengthen to become a tropical storm or subtropical storm at some point this weekend. If the system becomes a named storm (winds of 39+ mph), it will take the name “Arthur.” There is strong model agreement that regardless of if formal development happens, the area of low pressure will be steered out to sea. This system could be an issue for the island commonwealth of Bermuda this weekend or early next week, but direct impacts for the United States appear to be off the table at this point. Most models ramp this system up to a fairly weak tropical storm or subtropical storm.
A NOTE ABOUT PRESEASON STORMS… While you’d be right to think it is uncommon to have preseason named tropical storms, preseason storms have been more common over the last few years. We have had at least one preseason tropical storm or subtropical storm every year since 2014! Last year (2019), Subtropical Storm Andrea flared up in late May in the same area of the Atlantic Ocean where this tropical low is expected to form this weekend. Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Caribbean Sea before making landfall in the Florida Panhandle near Laguna Beach in Bay County. In 2017, Tropical Storm Arlene formed April 19 in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean before quickly fizzling out. Hurricane Alex formed in January of 2016 in the open waters of the Atlantic with Tropical Storm Bonnie forming in May of 2016 near the Carolinas. Ana was a tropical storm that formed in May of 2015 that made landfall in South Carolina. Way back in 2014 was the last time we did not have a tropical storm or subtropical storm before June 1. The first storm in 2014 was Hurricane Arthur that formed as a tropical storm on July 1.
TIME TO RETHINK THE START OF HURRICANE SEASON… The examples listed above join a handful of other preseason May tropical storms. While we clearly need more data to support this idea in the years ahead, perhaps it is time to at least begin a discussion on moving the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season to May 15 instead of June 1. That would be in line when the Eastern Pacific (EPAC) hurricane season kicks off every year on May 15. Tropical storms and subtropical storms in the month of May are certainly not unprecedented, but they appear to be becoming more common, especially in the last few years. Six years in a row, to be exact!
DRY & WARM THROUGH FRIDAY… Mostly sunny skies will prevail across the region through Friday as a dome of high pressure remains firmly in control of our weather pattern. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-80s today and tomorrow (Thursday) ahead of temperatures near 90° in the afternoon hours by Friday.
ISOLATED SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND… Rain chances continue to seem like they are slowly slipping away for the weekend. We have revised rain chances down into the 20-30% chance range, and unfortunately models continue to trend toward a drier solution. We really need some rain across the region as our drought prognosis continues to get worse each day. Drought conditions are most severe currently near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to the higher lack of rain in those areas compared to inland spots. Even if we do squeeze out a few showers and storms this weekend,
HOTTER TEMPS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK… The tinges of summer will be strong as we go into the upcoming week ahead of Memorial Day. High temperatures will rise into the low-90s with lows in the mid-60s. Keep in mind, once we start having highs in the 90s and lows near 70°, that will become the norm until early September. It’s only a matter of time before we will settle into a hot pattern with a chance of pop-up storms each afternoon.a
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See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a nice evening!