RAIN TO RETURN TO LOCAL AREA MONDAY; SUBTROPICAL STORM LIKELY EAST OF FLORIDA… Mostly sunny and dry conditions are likely across much of our area on this Saturday ahead of our next real rain chance across the region on Monday. High temperatures this afternoon will peak around the 90 degree mark. There could be one or two small, highly isolated showers today in the afternoon and evening hours, but I expect vast majority of us to remain dry. We could have the first named storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season form later this evening in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean near The Bahamas, but this system will certainly remain well east of our local area. After our rain chance on Monday, we have an extended period of dry weather ahead that will likely worsen local drought conditions. Let’s look at all of your forecast details.
SUBTROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM TONIGHT… The National Hurricane Center says there is an 80-90% chance that a subtropical/tropical depression/storm will form later this evening or perhaps on Sunday. The NHC discussion reads: “A broad and elongated area of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds from portions of southern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas northeastward over the adjacent Atlantic waters. Gradual development is still expected, and the system is likely to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm on Saturday while it passes the northwestern Bahamas and moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic east of the Carolinas. Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of southeastern Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through Saturday. In addition, hazardous marine conditions will continue off the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas, where Gale Warnings are currently in effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are also possible along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and early next week. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance this morning, if necessary.”
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN GULF NOW OFF THE BOARD… The low-end chance of tropical development in the western Gulf of Mexico we discussed in yesterday’s morning video and discussion has basically eroded to the point that it is no longer a real possibility. The area of low pressure responsible for this mention yesterday will actually move across our region from west to east on Monday, bringing with it our chance of rain and storms.
HOT TEMPS IN AFTERNOON HOURS… Mostly sunny skies are expected both today and on Sunday. High temperatures will peak near 90° this afternoon and on Sunday afternoon. If you are going to be outside for an extended period of time, please wear plenty of sunscreen as the UV index is very high today and tomorrow.
RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES MONDAY… YES, finally, we have a real chance of rain setting up for Monday. Let me be clear that the severe weather risk is LOW, but the chance of rain is now at a 50-60% chance across the region. This will probably manifest in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms being most likely in the P.M. hours.
SUNNY, DRY, & WARM NEXT WEEK… If your location does not experience rain on Monday, there is a high chance that you won’t get rain for a week or more beyond that. Tuesday through Friday of the upcoming week will feature mostly sunny (if not completely sunny) skies each day with high temperatures in the low-80s on Tuesday, rising to around 90° by Friday. Overnight lows will consistently be around the 60 degree mark. While I don’t put much stock into long range model ideas beyond 7 days out, we note that most model runs have painted a dry scenario going into late May. Again, I hope that most areas DO have rain on Monday as this very well could be the last real chance for awhile. Drought conditions will probably get significantly worse, unfortunately, before improvement happens.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have updates as needed today in the RedZone Weather app. Have a wonderful Saturday!