SCATTERED POP-UP STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING… Scattered rain and storms will likely pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida this afternoon into this evening on this Monday. We’ll likely have an initial batch of showers and storms closer to the coast this morning, followed by a more potent round of storms inland this afternoon into this evening. The main concern in the stronger thunderstorms today will be the potential for gusty winds, small hail, very heavy downpours of rain, and quite a bit of lightning. The tornado risk today remains near or at zero. Our weather pattern is set to largely be on repeat over the next few days. Let’s look at details.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD 4TH OF JULY… Model guidance has consistently suggested an uptick in the way of shower and thunderstorm coverage later this week as we approach Independence Day on Saturday. We probably won’t have an “all day washout,” but there will inevitably be a few storms around on Friday, Saturday, and into Sunday.
TROPICAL UPDATE 1 OF 2: TROPICAL WAVE IN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a tropical wave, currently situated between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, that has a low-end (20%) chance of becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. Odds are this system will fade away and remain a general tropical wave with no major impacts. There is a small chance that a circulation center may form a bit farther to the south in the tropical wave and ultimately briefly spin-up into a tropical storm. If that scenario happens, we’ll have to keep an eye on the system as it moves to the west. Regardless of development, no impacts from this system are expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida over the next 7 days.
TROPICAL UPDATE 2 OF 2: LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN ATLANTIC… The other area of concern in the Atlantic Basin is a stalled frontal boundary situated between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S. This system could form an area of low pressure that could become a tropical storm as it moves eastward and out to sea, very similar to what happened last week with Tropical Storm Dolly. No impacts for our local area from that system, regardless of if formal development happens.
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See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… My next detailed forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM on Monday. See you then!