STORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND; NOW TRACKING 3 TROPICAL SYSTEMS… We’ll have rain and storms at times today and this weekend, but our rain isn’t directly associated with the tropical systems we are tracking. Tropical Storm Gonzalo is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Tropical Storm Hanna is located in the western Gulf of Mexico headed for the Texas coast in the latter half of the weekend. We’re also now watching a robust tropical wave emerging from the African continent that has a growing (now up to 30-40%) chance of becoming a tropical storm in the Atlantic Ocean in the next few days. Details about each aspect of the forecast are below…
SCATTERED STORMS TODAY… Showers and thunderstorms are likely at times today across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Storm motion will be similar to yesterday, with most of the rain and storms streaming in from the southeast with movement to the northwest. This general storm motion is in response to the large counterclockwise circulation of TD8/Hanna to our south in the Gulf of Mexico. Widespread severe weather is NOT expected today or this weekend across the local area but a few of the storms could be on the strong side with gusty winds, heavy rain, and cloud-to-ground lightning being the main concerns. High temperatures today will be in the low-90s across the region.
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND… Scattered rain and storms will happen this weekend, but just like today, there probably won’t be any spots that have rain in progress all day. Most of the rain and storms will happen in the 1PM to 7PM window, although there is a chance storms may start firing up a bit earlier than that for immediate coastal areas. High temperatures this weekend will be near 90 degrees with morning lows in the low-70s.
MORE RAIN INTO NEXT WEEK… Prolific moisture content from the Gulf of Mexico will continue to stream into our area early next week, paving the way for high (60-80%) rain chances Monday through Wednesday. I really don’t see anything in the way of a significant pattern change for the latter half of next week either, with scattered storms expected for the next 7-10 days.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA IN THE GULF… Tropical Depression Eight strengthened last night into Tropical Storm Hanna. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters aircraft crew found that maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph. Hanna is moving west-northwest at the moment at about 7 miles per hour. A “leftward” turn more to the west or even slightly south of due west is expected to happen tomorrow. Landfall is expected in Texas this weekend, probably as a moderate (55-60 mph) tropical storm. Heavy rain, flash flooding, and gusty winds near coastal areas will be the main hazards from Tropical Storm Hanna for parts of Texas. Isolated tornadoes may also become a concern. We are not expecting direct local impacts in south Alabama or northwest Florida from Tropical Storm Hanna, other than continued high waves and dangerous rip currents being prevalent at local beaches this weekend.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR TEXAS COAST… A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from the Mouth of the Rio Grande River northward to San Luis Pass, Texas. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from San Luis Pass northward to High Island, Texas. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the portions of the Texas coast in areas south of Houston this weekend with the arrival of Tropical Storm Hanna.
GONZALO MOVING TOWARD LESSER ANTILLES… A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Barbados and St. Vincent and the Grenadines this morning with a Tropical Storm Watch being in effect for Tobago and Grenada. These watches are in effect because of Tropical Storm Gonzalo, currently located about 675 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. The reason for complete dissipation early next week (most likely on Tuesday) is because Gonzalo will be moving into a very harsh environment with dry air and shear expected to completely zap the system of convection. Instead of being a hurricane moving toward Hispaniola, Cuba, or Jamaica, this increasingly looks like a situation that will feature a tropical storm completely fading away and not redeveloping as it moves west or northwest toward central America. Great news!
30-40% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN ATLANTIC… There is a growing chance (30-40% as of now) that a tropical wave currently emerging off the African continent will become our next tropical storm. The National Hurricane Center suggests that development will be possible once the tropical wave reaches the central Atlantic, very near where Tropical Storm Gonzalo happens to be right now. Obviously Gonzalo will be long gone from that position once the tropical wave arrives in several days. This probably won’t be the last of the tropical waves either. More will emerge from Africa over the next few weeks and several will likely have a chance of becoming tropical storms. This is common as we get into August and September, which are the peak months of the Atlantic hurricane season.
UPDATES IN APP THROUGHOUT THE DAY… I will have plenty of updates throughout the day not only about the pop-up storms locally but also the latest information concerning the tropics. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!