NUMEROUS STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY TODAY; HANNA TO MAKE LANDFALL IN TEXAS… The tropics remain quite active, but no systems are an imminent issue for south Alabama or northwest Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the region at times today. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s. The tropics remain active: Hanna is expected to make landfall in south Texas later today as a category 1 hurricane. The system has improved in organization over the last 12-24 hours. Gonzalo, the system located in the Atlantic Ocean near Trinidad and Tobago, is running on fumes this morning and is expected to completely dissipate soon. The storm went from looking quite impressive with a chance to become a hurricane as it approached the Lesser Antilles. That did not happen, thankfully. More about why is below. The tropical focus will shift in the days ahead to a tropical wave near the Cabo Verde Islands that is expected to become a tropical storm later this week. I’ve got all your Saturday forecast details below…
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED TODAY… The large counterclockwise of Hanna, located in the western Gulf of Mexico, will be the primary steering factor for our local storms today. Just to be clear, there is NOT an increased tornado risk locally because of Hanna. The isolated tornadoes due to Hanna will happen in eastern parts of Texas today into tonight. Thunderstorms locally in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be capable of producing very heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning. Just like the last few days, storms will become numerous this afternoon into this evening and generally fade away progressively after sunset.
HANNA LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND IN TEXAS AS HURRICANE… A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port Mansfield to Mesquite Bay, Texas on this Saturday due to the approach of Hanna, a system that strengthened significantly on Friday. Hanna will likely cross the Texas coast this afternoon into this evening as a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near the coast of 75-80 mph. Wind impacts are most likely near the immediate coastline in Texas, however heavy rain and flash flooding will likely be the major impact for southern parts of Texas. 5-10 inches of rain will be possible with isolated higher amounts to 15” not out of the realm of possibilities as Hanna moves by over the next few days. Hanna will continue to cause high waves and dangerous rip currents at local beaches in Alabama and northwest Florida. The system is expected to move into Mexico on Sunday, where dissipation should happen quickly because of the high terrain completely ripping the circulation apart.
DEMISE OF GONZALO LIKELY IMMINENT… Tropical Storm Gonzalo is barely hanging on this morning. The track guidance for Gonzalo has not been that bad, but the system has consistently had a “southerly bias,” in that Gonzalo never really gained ANY latitude as expected. Instead, the system has basically been moving due west and increasing in forward speed. In addition to drier air choking off the system AND increasing shear ahead in the Caribbean, it looks like the inner core of Gonzalo may be completely disrupted by the coast of Venezuela or Trinidad & Tobago today or tomorrow. While the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for complete dissipation in 2-3 days, I think this may be a bit generous. It looks like Gonzalo’s demise will be more imminent, perhaps later today or tomorrow.
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING… Our focus will increasingly shift over the next few days, once Gonzalo and Hanna are off the board, to a robust tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean currently located just south of the Cabo Verde Islands. The National Hurricane Center says there is now a 50% chance of this tropical wave becoming a tropical storm some time next week once it moves into the central Atlantic. The next name on the tropical storm/hurricane naming list is Isaias (not a typo – Isaias is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs.
LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES IN DAYS AHEAD… Sunday, Monday, into Tuesday will feature increasing rain chances. We’ll call it a 60-70% chance of rain today and on Sunday, followed by a 70-80% chance of rain on both Monday and Tuesday. Our higher rain chances locally won’t be because of any tropical system, but rather ongoing Gulf moisture that continues to propagate into our region from the south. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s with morning lows in the low-70s.
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I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a great Saturday!