90% CHANCE OF NEW TROPICAL STORM IN ATLANTIC; SCATTERED STORMS LOCALLY… While Hanna and Gonzalo are on the way out, we’re now watching a new area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic that has a 90% chance of becoming a tropical storm this week. This new system, when and if it develops, will take the name Isaias. This name is pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs, aka certainly a name that will be interesting when a bunch of meteorologists (including yours truly) start to say it. Locally, we’re stuck in a consistent pattern featuring afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures on this Sunday are peaking in the upper-80s for many across the region. More in the way of localized downpours are expected this week. Let’s look at your forecast details…
STORMS POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA… Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms have been happening over the last hour (as of 2:15PM) across parts of Okaloosa and Walton counties in northwest Florida. We’re beginning to see the first of the afternoon storms bubble up across inland areas. As of 2:15PM, storms are firing near Repton, Range, Opp, Onycha, Beatrice, and Baker. I expect scattered to numerous storms to continue to fire up in the hours ahead. Be ready for the “splash and dash” variety of storms through the early evening hours.
NEW TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS WEEK… The National Hurricane Center indicates there is now a 90% chance that a tropical storm will develop in the central Atlantic, about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Thinking back to last week, this is pretty much the same area where Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed. The key difference between Gonzalo and this new system is that Gonzalo was a very small tropical system that was highly fragile and ended up succumbing to hostile atmospheric conditions. This new system (branded currently as INVEST 92L) has a much larger overall area. In other words, the “tropical wave envelope” is much larger than the one that ultimately formed into Gonzalo. This will act as an area of protection for the developing system, sealing it off in a more pronounced way from the drier air to the north of the system. See more info below about the long-term prognosis for INVEST 92L.
INVEST 92L (ISAIAS-TO-BE) TO MOVE WEST… Confidence is very high in the short-term that the tropical wave that is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias will move west toward the Lesser Antilles in the days ahead. Interests in Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and Hispaniola should closely monitor this system as odds are high that impacts will happen later this week or during the upcoming weekend. Beyond that point, there is some uncertainty involved as to where this system will ultimately move. We note that most of the global models track this system near or perhaps just to the east of The Bahamas. This would bode well for the Gulf of Mexico region. It is too early to say that conclusively, but early model guidance certainly has featured a LOT of good news for our local area in this aspect. We’ll keep watching in the days ahead and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.
TROPICAL STORM HANNA WEAKENING OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO… Hanna made landfall as a strong category 1 hurricane yesterday evening in Kenedy County, Texas, north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi. We note that heavy rain and flash flooding issues continue across parts of south Texas on this Sunday. A Tornado Watch is in effect for much of the south Texas region, including Brownsville, McAllen, Laredo, and Corpus Christi until 10PM as isolated tornadoes on the eastern flank of Hanna continue to be a possibility. Hanna has weakened to a tropical storm and is currently situated over the high terrain of northeast Mexico. Further weakening is expected and complete dissipation is likely over the next day or so.
GONZALO IS OFF THE BOARD… Just in case you missed the good news yesterday, Tropical Storm Gonzalo weakened to tropical depression status yesterday followed by complete dissipation last evening. The National Hurricane Center issued their final advisory. The remnants of Gonzalo are now an open, weak tropical wave moving across the southern Caribbean Sea. Redevelopment of the system is not expected.
LOCALLY, STORMS LIKELY IN P.M. HOURS EACH DAY THIS WEEK… While our focus has increasingly been on the tropics, our local weather pattern has remained pretty much the same with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the last week. More of the same is in store for the upcoming week. We get somewhat of a break from widespread rain and storms as we go into Thursday and Friday of this week. We’ll still have at least some chance of rain each day but I expect rain coverage to be less since we won’t have a fire hose of Gulf moisture pointed at our area. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s over the next few days with morning lows in the low-70s. Widespread severe weather is not in the forecast over the next 7-10 days.
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See all the details in your Sunday evening #rzw forecast video… Have a nice evening!