MORE SHOWERS & STORMS LOCALLY TODAY; TROPICAL STORM LIKELY TO FORM… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be our local weather highlight on this Monday. We’ll call it a 60-70% chance of rain for any given spot across south Alabama and northwest Florida today. Just like the last few days, storms may be a bit rowdy at times with cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, heavy rain, and gusty winds in the strongest of the storms. Widespread severe weather is not expected today or in the next week. The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is a 90% chance of a new tropical storm forming in the central part of the Atlantic Ocean over the next day or so. Right now, there is a strong tropical wave on the cusp of becoming a tropical depression located about halfway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. There are big question marks as to where this system will ultimately end up, but confidence is increasing in the odds of formal development. We’re also looking ahead to the end of the week into the upcoming weekend that might be a bit drier than the first half of the week. Let’s look at all of your Monday forecast details…
STORMS MOST NUMEROUS THIS EVENING… Today is a classic summer day across the region with storms expected to fire up in the heat of the day. This means that storms will be most numerous from 11AM to 7PM. We had quite a bit of heavy rain and lightning in the storms on Sunday and I expect today will be somewhat of a repeat of that. High temperatures today will be in the upper-80s and near 90 degrees in most spots.
90% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMING IN ATLANTIC… The tropical wave currently branded as INVEST 92L continues to move west at about 10-15 mph. There is a very high chance (90%) that this system becomes a tropical storm today or tomorrow. If and when that happens, the next tropical cyclone name on the naming list is Isaias, pronounced ees-ah-EE-ahs. Thinking back to last week, this is pretty much the same area where Tropical Storm Gonzalo formed. The key difference between Gonzalo and this new system is that Gonzalo was a very small tropical system that was highly fragile and ended up succumbing to hostile atmospheric conditions. This new system has a much larger overall area. In other words, the “tropical wave envelope” is much larger than the one that ultimately formed into Gonzalo. This will act as an area of protection for the developing system, sealing it off in a more pronounced way from the drier air to the north of the system. See more info below about the long-term prognosis for INVEST 92L.
ISAIAS-TO-BE MOVING TOWARD LESSER ANTILLES… Confidence is very high in the short-term that the tropical wave that is expected to become Tropical Storm Isaias will move west toward the Lesser Antilles in the days ahead. Interests in Puerto Rico, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, the northern Lesser Antilles, and Hispaniola should closely monitor this system as odds are high that impacts will happen later this week or during the upcoming weekend. Beyond that point, there is some uncertainty involved as to where this system will ultimately move. We note that most of the global models track this system near or perhaps just to the east of The Bahamas. This would bode well for the Gulf of Mexico region. It is too early to say that conclusively, but early model guidance certainly has featured a LOT of good news for our local area in this aspect. We’ll keep watching in the days ahead and bring you the latest in the RedZone Weather app.
FINAL ADVISORY ISSUED FOR HANNA… The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on what was Tropical Depression Hanna last evening. The remnant low pressure area associated with the former circulation of Hanna is now over the high terrain of northeast Mexico, where heavy rain continues. Hanna will be remembered as the first (and hopefully only) hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The center made landfall with 90 mph maximum sustained winds north of Brownsville and south of Corpus Christi in Kenedy County, Texas.
CONSISTENT PATTERN THIS WEEK: P.M. STORMS… While our focus has increasingly been on the tropics, our local weather pattern has remained pretty much the same with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the last week. More of the same is in store for the upcoming week. We get somewhat of a break from widespread rain and storms as we go into Thursday and Friday of this week. We’ll still have at least some chance of rain each day but I expect rain coverage to be less since we won’t have a fire hose of Gulf moisture pointed at our area. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s over the next few days with morning lows in the low-70s. Widespread severe weather is not in the forecast over the next 7-10 days.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Monday #rzw forecast video… Have a great day!