FEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON; TROPICS QUIET FOR NOW… Sunny skies with puffy, white cumulus clouds this afternoon into this evening are what you can expect on this Wednesday. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s with heat index values near 100 this afternoon. Rain chances today remain low (10-20%) meaning vast majority of us should remain dry, but I cannot completely rule out the chance of a few showers or a storm or two. Tomorrow and Friday will be similar to today with increasing rain chances expected for the weekend. Tropical Storm Isaias became post-tropical last night as it raced northward across New England and southern Canada.
HOT & MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND THURSDAY… Our region will continue in a hot, mostly dry pattern through tomorrow with only a small chance of showers and storms. High temperatures will be in the low- to mid-90s with morning lows in the 70s. The greatest chance of rain (again, only a 10-20% chance) will be across inland areas of south Alabama. No severe weather issues are expected.
RAIN CHANCES RISE THIS WEEKEND… If you’ve missed the rain and storms over the last few days, there is good news to report. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous across the area increasingly from Saturday to Monday. Storms will be most numerous in the afternoon and evening hours each day. Highs will remain in the 90s with morning lows in the 70s.
ISAIAS IS NOW POST-TROPICAL… Perhaps one of the most controversial named hurricanes in recent times is now a memory: Hurricane Isaias is now off the board. The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory late last evening when the system was declared post-tropical over southern Canada, north of Vermont. Isaias made landfall in North Carolina as a strengthening category 1 hurricane. Several tornadoes happened yesterday in the mid-Atlantic region as Isaias moved by rapidly to the north.
TROPICS ARE QUIET FOR NOW… Now that Tropical Storm Isaias is officially off the board, we’ll be focusing on tropical waves and any developing areas of low pressure in the Gulf, Caribbean Sea, or the main development region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean. Right now, I don’t see any areas of concerns in those zones. The National Hurricane Center is watching INVEST 94L, a tropical disturbance located southwest of Bermuda. From NHC: “A small well-defined low has formed within a broader trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of Bermuda. This system is producing very little thunderstorm activity at this time, but some slight development is possible while the system moves little during the next couple of days. A southwestward drift is forecast on Thursday and Friday.”
DON’T TRUST THE FEAR MONGERS… I had several questions last evening in regard to a post on a “weather page” on Facebook showing one model image from one model run of a major hurricane in the Gulf in 16 days. A few thoughts on this… 1) It’s August. Could a major hurricane form in the Gulf in 16 days? Yep, it’s very possible. 2) Is that scenario likely at this point? NO, it’s not. Model confidence beyond 7 days out is very, very low. Beyond 14 days out is simply throwing things on a wall and seeing what sticks. There is zero skill in forecasting in that range. 3) When “Tropical Weather Page,” and “Uncle John’s Weather Shack” and similar vague named pages on Facebook post these viral, one model solutions, it is not only irresponsible, it’s also dangerous. Why? Because “cry wolf syndrome” is a very real thing. People that are not as “weather aware” generally have no idea what’s real and what’s not on social media. If you are reading this far into my post this morning, odds are you’re QUITE “weather aware” (and I really appreciate that!). Friends don’t let friends share these fake, fear mongering posts!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Wednesday #rzw forecast video. Have a good day!