MULTIPLE TROPICAL STORMS POSSIBLE IN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK… The entirety of the Gulf Coast region, from Texas eastward to Florida, including all of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama should closely monitor the progress of not one, but two, developing tropical storms in the days ahead. The National Hurricane Center initiated advisories this morning on Tropical Depression 14, located in the Caribbean Sea. TD14 will likely strengthen into a tropical storm soon as it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico before emerging into the southern Gulf on Sunday. The first projected path for TD14 shows the system approaching Texas and Louisiana early next week. Perhaps the more concerning storm for our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida is Tropical Depression 13, located in the central Atlantic Ocean this afternoon. TD13 is going to *rapidly* move west-northwest over the next few days, potentially entering the southeastern Gulf or crossing the Florida Peninsula early next week (Monday or Tuesday). There is a high chance the system will be a hurricane at that point.
TWO STORMS FORECAST TO BE IN THE GULF… I cannot recall a situation in recent times when two tropical systems (one hurricane and one tropical storm) were in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time, but I would imagine it HAS happened before. I would have to dig into the history books and records to find out when (and I simply don’t have time to do that with all of the new developments), but if I had to bet, I would imagine this isn’t the first time in the records something like this has happened. This IS certainly an uncommon situation, but I would be hesitant to use the word “unprecedented” as I feel sure in the 150ish years of records that this isn’t the first time.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13 TO STRENGTHEN & MOVE TOWARD GULF… NHC now calls for TD13 to become a tropical storm later today. TD13 will likely be a strengthening tropical storm as it moves near or just north of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola in the days ahead. By Sunday morning, the center of TD13 (likely to be a moderate tropical storm at that point) will be near the Turks & Caicos islands in the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane intensity is now in the official forecast by the time TD13 reaches the western Bahamas and South Florida. Interests in South Florida (The Florida Keys, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, Pompano Beach, Fort Myers) and really the entire Florida Peninsula up to Tampa, Orlando, and Jacksonville should closely monitor the progress of this system. We note the end of the forecast period in 5 days (Tuesday morning) has TD13 as a hurricane either over the Florida Peninsula or more likely in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Model uncertainty after that point increases substantially, however, it does appear that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida will be possible under some scenarios. We should be able to have more confidence in this idea probably by Saturday midday.
NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14 IN THE CARIBBEAN… The National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories this morning on Tropical Depression 14, located in the west-central Caribbean Sea. This is the tropical wave we’ve been tracking for days, formerly branded as INVEST 97L. Maximum winds are now up to 35 mph. The center of circulation is located about 235 miles east of Cabo Gracias a Dios, located on the Nicaragua & Honduras border. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the coast of Honduras, including all of the bay islands in Honduras. Additional watches or warnings, including for the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, may be required later today.
T.D. 14 LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE GULF EARLY SUNDAY… The first projected path for Tropical Depression 14 shows the system moving north and northwest toward Texas and Louisiana by early next week. Obviously this would be interesting (to say the absolute least) with a tropical storm in the western Gulf approaching TX/LA with a potential hurricane on the other side of the Gulf near the Florida Peninsula. Big takeaway is: TD14 likely remains to the west of south Alabama and northwest Florida.
COMPLEX PATTERN WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY… Let me stress there is NO need for panic or worry concerning the tropics. I know anytime we have a situation like this, “severe weather anxiety” goes off the charts for some people. One thing I would suggest for folks in this camp is to review your hurricane safety plan NOW before we have any type of potential local impacts. It is a good idea really for everyone, BUT if you’re someone that struggles with severe weather anxiety, taking control of the situation and being prepared can sometimes make you feel a bit better. This is hurricane season and situations like this are normal. I know the media noise can sometimes feel overwhelming to some. Stick with me over the next week and we’ll get through this.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have another detailed update later this evening. Until then, be sure to join me in the RedZone Weather app for the very latest information. Have a nice Thursday evening!