LAURA LIKELY TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE MOVING TOWARD LOUISIANA & TEXAS… I’ll cut to the chase since we’ve been in “watch and wait mode” for so long over the last few days: Forecast confidence is now quite high that Tropical Storm Laura will become a hurricane over the next day or so on its trek northwest toward the Texas or Louisiana coast. Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida continue to look less likely. Tropical Storm Marco has made landfall in Louisiana this evening and continues to rapidly weaken. The news is all good this evening for south Alabama and northwest Florida. Let’s look at all of your tropical details.
MARCO MAKES LANDFALL IN LOUISIANA… The low-level center of circulation of Tropical Storm Marco made landfall around 6PM near Port Eads and Pilottown in southeastern Louisiana, in the “boot-heel” of the state where the Mississippi River empties into the Gulf of Mexico. What is left of Marco is that low-level cloud swirl moving over the bayous of southeast Louisiana (no rain in most cases there!) and scattered showers well to the northeast of the exposed center. These showers are in place across our region and extend eastward into Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. Marco will become a tropical depression overnight and ultimately become a remnant low pressure area probably in the morning.
WHAT TO EXPECT – OVERNIGHT… Locally, I expect more in the way of scattered showers and maybe a few thunderstorms overnight into the early part of Tuesday. While I cannot completely rule out a brief, spin-up tornado near the immediate beaches overnight, the tornado risk only a few miles inland and extending northward across our region is probably closer to zero. Expect to hear some raindrops on the roof at times overnight, but that will probably be about it in terms of impacts. If we happen to have a tornado warning for a coastal county at any point overnight, we’ll jump on the live stream here on Facebook and in the RedZone Weather app to bring you the very latest information. That possibility looks less likely as the night continues, however.
TORNADO WARNINGS TO THE EAST TODAY… Multiple tornado warnings have happened across the Florida Panhandle region this evening, where a Tornado Watch continues until midnight. This Tornado Watch is in effect for Walton, Bay, Gulf counties, and points east in the Florida Panhandle. A likely tornado happened earlier very near U.S. Highway 231 northeast of Panama City in Bay County. Another tornado warning is happening as of 7:25PM for parts of Jackson County, FL near and just north of Marianna and south of Dothan, AL.
LAURA LIKELY TO BE A HURRICANE SOON… Tropical Storm Laura will be moving into the Gulf of Mexico over the next few hours from the Caribbean Sea as the center of the storm crosses the western tip of Cuba. The National Hurricane Center says Laura will likely become a hurricane on Tuesday. Rapid intensification is a possibility as the storm continues to move northwest over the highly favorable environment over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
HURRICANE WATCH FOR PARTS OF TEXAS & LOUISIANA… A Hurricane Watch has been issued for parts of Texas and Louisiana this evening. The Hurricane Watch extends from Port Bolivar, Texas easward to Morgan City, Louisiana. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect from Morgan City, Louisiana eastward to the Mouth of the Mississippi River due to Laura.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE NOW MUCH HIGHER… Model consensus has really come into better agreement today suggesting the center of Laura will move toward eastern Texas or western Louisiana. That means that local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are now much less likely to happen. Unfortunately, for our friends to our west in Louisiana and Texas, this is setting up to be a potentially dangerous situation as Laura could become a major hurricane in the next few days before landfall. If you know someone in the greater Houston area, east Texas, Lake Charles, or southwestern Louisiana, I would let them know that this has the makings of a serious situation for that area.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – LAURA… Local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida seem unlikely as the core of what will likely be Hurricane Laura will be well to our west midweek. One thing we will need to monitor is what happens to Laura once the system is well inland over Arkansas and Tennessee. Sometimes tropical systems moving that far north and then back to the east can act as a catalyst for tornadoes to happen across parts of the Deep South. That is a possibility we’ll be watching for late Thursday into Friday. For now, that potential looks fairly unlikely.
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS… Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday across our region. Most of the storms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours as we settle back into our seasonal late August pattern. High temperatures will be around 90 with morning lows in the 70s.
No live video tonight as the threat of impacts has considerably lessened across south Alabama and northwest Florida. My next regularly scheduled video will be posted on Tuesday morning by 7:15AM.
Have a great Monday evening!