MUCH COOLER FOR REMAINDER OF THE WEEK; CARIBBEAN TROPICAL MISCHIEF… Clearing skies and cooler temperatures are our local weather headline on this Tuesday. Now that a cold front has passed, we have cooler, drier, much more stable air flowing in from the northwest this morning. Lingering clouds and showers will clear out this afternoon into this evening. High temperatures today will be in the low-70s. The coolest temperatures of the fall season so far are set to happen in the overnight hours as most spots decline into the 50s. I expect most areas to have overnight lows in the low- to mid-50s by 6AM on Wednesday. Despite our weather pattern becoming much more calm locally in the days ahead, we are now watching the setup of what will likely be a developing tropical storm in the western Caribbean Sea this weekend or early next week. A few Tuesday morning forecast notes are below.
50% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IN CARIBBEAN SEA… The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a growing chance of a tropical storm forming in the warm waters of the western Caribbean Sea in 4-5 days. Water temperatures in the western Caribbean Sea are in the mid- to upper-80s. Combine that with a very hospitable upper-level atmospheric pattern and you get a recipe for a potential tropical storm to develop. Just to be clear, this system is not expected to develop today or tomorrow, but rather later in the week or the upcoming weekend. If this system develops into a tropical storm, the next name from the Greek Alphabet (since we have exhausted all of the regular names) is Gamma.
LONG RANGE IDEAS FOR TROPICAL MISCHIEF IN CARIBBEAN… It is totally normal to have ample uncertainty at this phase of a potential tropical storm coming together. That is pretty much exactly what we have. The trend in modeling over the last 24 hours has definitely been positive for Gulf Coast communities, however, as both the major models (GFS and ECMWF) have suggested a tropical storm developing in the western Caribbean then stalling out over the Yucatan Peninsula and then fading away entirely. Obviously that would be a major mudslide and flash flooding potential for Mexico and Belize, but that particular scenario would be good news for our local area. That is ONE idea from two models. We’ll keep watching the trends in the days ahead. Way too early to suggest potential local impacts may happen in our local area and on the flip side, way too early to give any type of all clear.
MILD DAYS & COOL NIGHTS AHEAD… Locally, we have a quiet, fall pattern set to continue for the remainder of this week and into the weekend. Sunny skies are expected each day starting tomorrow (Wednesday) with clear nights. Highs will generally be in the 70s with morning lows in the 50s, except at the immediate beaches where overnight lows will run a bit warmer (60s).
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a good day!