RZW EXEC: TROPICAL STORM DELTA EXPECTED TO FORM ON MONDAY… RZW Exec partners, good Sunday evening! The latest data concerning what the National Hurricane Center has branded as “Potential Tropical Cyclone 26” has me concerned this evening. Forecast models have continually alluded to a potential direct hit or side swipe for our local area by what will likely be Hurricane Delta later this week. Let me be abundantly clear in stating I am not suggesting that a direct hurricane hit will happen locally, although I am concerned that the data has been so consistent today. We’re looking at a situation where rain begins Thursday evening with potential significant wind impacts on Friday into Friday night. In addition to heavy rain, flash flooding, and wind impacts (depending on where the exact center of Delta moves), isolated tornadoes, dangerous storm surge, coastal flooding, and river & creek flooding may become possible. The official NHC forecast (pictured above) calls for Delta to ramp up to a category 2 hurricane late in the forecast period on Friday. While there will be some limiting factors for the storm starting Thursday into Friday (like increasing shear and slightly cooler water temps), that may not matter too much if the storm is quite strong and moving quickly into our area or just to the east or west of our local area. As always, please let me know if you have decision support needs or questions. Our public messaging for tonight is below.
PTC26/DELTA-TO-BE MAY BE A HURRICANE ON APPROACH TO NORTHERN GULF COAST… Potential Tropical Cyclone 26, aka what will likely be Tropical Storm Delta soon, will likely be a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by midweek. There is a growing chance that local impacts in our local area, south Alabama and northwest Florida, will be possible later this week, perhaps on Friday into Saturday. We also note on this Sunday evening that there have been some forecast changes with Tropical Storm Gamma, currently located in the southern Gulf. Gamma may get in on the action too, potentially moving north later this week or this weekend. It is important that all of us across the region keep close tabs on the tropics, especially PTC26/Delta-to-be.
A PERSONAL NOTE ABOUT HURRICANE SALLY… Just keeping it real, I totally understand and realize that this is the LAST thing that many of you want to hear after the devastation caused by Hurricane Sally only 18 days ago. That is less than 3 weeks ago, and here we are looking at a situation where another hurricane may make a run at the northern Gulf Coast. I am tired of it, you are tired of it, we’re all tired of it. We’re tired of COVID, we’re tired of endless politics, and we’re tired of hurricane season. I get it, I promise. However, it is absolutely critical that we monitor these two tropical systems in the days ahead as unfortunately, there could be more significant impacts upcoming. The Atlantic Hurricane Season WILL end soon, but we’ve got to get through this week and this upcoming weekend before we see quieter conditions (hopefully).
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS FROM PTC26/DELTA-TO-BE… The potential impacts from PTC26/Delta-to-be would likely happen in south Alabama and northwest Florida would likely happen Friday into Saturday IF the storm indeed approaches our area or passes just to our west (thus putting our area on the volatile eastern side). Coastal impacts may begin as early as Thursday evening. Specific local impacts will largely depend on the exact future track of this storm, but there is little doubt that heavy rain will be a concern. Flash flooding and potentially river and creek flooding could become a concern. Isolated tornadoes will be possible. The wind impacts will be largely dependent on exactly where the center of the storm goes, but keep in mind that our local area IS in the “cone of uncertainty” even 5 days out, thus it is possible that we could have a direct hit from the center of what could be Hurricane Delta at that point. That is NOT a certainty at this point by any stretch, but it is a possibility and one that we all should be preparing for in the days ahead. Please check back with me on Monday and Tuesday for new information as forecast changes are expected.
HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN GULF COAST BY TUESDAY… A Hurricane Watch is in effect for parts of Cuba (Pinar del Rio and Artemisa) and the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La Habana. A Hurricane Watch or Tropical Storm Watch will likely be needed for parts of the northern Gulf Coast here in the U.S. tomorrow (Monday) or on Tuesday.
FORECAST CHANGES FOR TROPICAL STORM GAMMA… Tropical Storm Gamma is located in the southern Gulf of Mexico on this Sunday evening with the center of the storm being about 170 miles north of Cozumel, Mexico. Gamma is drifting erratically around the southern Gulf, but at this moment, the storm is moving east-northeast at about 3 mph. NHC continues to indicate that a large subtropical ridge of high pressure will build in and push Gamma to the west starting tomorrow (Monday). We note that the long-term prognosis for Tropical Storm Gamma has changed a bit today, with the general model consensus now suggesting a sudden jolt to the north in about 5-6 days. That means that while PTC16/Delta (which will likely be a strong tropical storm or hurricane) is in the central and northern Gulf, Gamma may be in the Bay of Campeche ALSO getting set to move north. It should be emphasized that long-term forecast idea is highly uncertain and we need to get more data in over the next 24-48 hours to have a better idea of where Gamma will ultimately end up.
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have your next highly detailed video and longer form text discussion posted by 7:15AM on Monday. Have a good Sunday evening!