RAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY; FEW STORMS NEAR COAST… Heavy rain is likely at times on Tuesday across the region, particularly in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain amounts across the region are expected to stack up to 1 to 2 inches in total on Tuesday. Flash flooding could become a concern if rain and storms train over the same areas. Widespread severe weather is not expected, although there could be a few stronger storms near the immediate beach zones tomorrow evening. A few more Monday evening forecast notes are below.
CONDITIONAL RISK OF A FEW STRONG STORMS NEAR BEACHES… Vast majority of us across south Alabama and northwest Florida will simply have rain at times on Tuesday, with heavy rain being possible. Most of our region will be in cool, stable air throughout the day. The concern on Tuesday evening is that a narrow zone of higher surface-based instability may briefly move across coastal areas from west to east. This will likely happen from 6PM to midnight, meaning a few strong to marginally severe storms may become possible. The main concern in any storms that briefly ramp up to severe levels would be damaging wind gusts. The tornado risk will likely remain quite low, even in coastal zones. There will likely be no tornado risk farther inland.
RISK OF FLASH FLOODING… There is a low-end risk of flash flooding across the entirety of south Alabama and northwest Florida tomorrow. Rain amounts of 1-2″ of rain in total on Tuesday are expected across the region with isolated higher amounts being possible if rain and storms train over the same areas. We note NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center has included much of our local area in their low-end, marginal risk zone for flash flooding on Tuesday.
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I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a good Monday evening!