SCATTERED STORMS TODAY; STRONG LINE OF STORMS SATURDAY MORNING… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will pop up across south Alabama and northwest Florida on this Friday. Some of these storms could be strong or severe at times, producing heavy rain, quite a bit of lightning, and gusty winds. These storms will be widely spaced initially before coverage increases later today. Tonight into Saturday morning, we’ll be monitoring a developing line of strong to severe storms setting up to our west. This line of storms is expected to move across our area from west to east on Saturday morning, bringing with it the chance of strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center added a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone for parts of Mississippi, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas due to a pronounced threat of damaging straight line winds. Part of our local area is involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk zone where damaging winds and tornadoes will be likely to happen tomorrow morning. Storms should exit our area to the east by mid-afternoon on Saturday. We’ll be drying out Saturday evening ahead of drier conditions ahead for Sunday and Monday. All of your Friday morning forecast details are below.
POP-UP THUNDERSTORMS TODAY; HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES… Thunderstorms today are expected to be loud and proud at times. There could be a stronger storm or two at times later this morning or into the early afternoon hours but clearly the greater severe weather issues are ahead for Saturday morning. Storms this afternoon may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, cloud-to-ground lightning, and even small hail if storms can become strong. I will have radar updates throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Highs today will be in the low-80s, similar to the last few days.
LINE OF STORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST TONIGHT… We’ll be watching radar trends across parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and Mississippi as a potentially robust line of thunderstorms develops. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk for those areas, primarily driven by the damaging wind potential. This is the same line of storms that is expected to cross our area on Saturday morning.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) RISK TO OUR WEST TODAY INTO TONIGHT… SPC maintains an uncommon Level 4 (out of 5) significant severe weather risk zone valid today into this evening for much of northeastern Louisiana, far southern Arkansas, and much of the southern half of Mississippi. Places like Hattiesburg, Jackson (MS), Vicksburg, McComb, and Meridian are involved in the higher Level 4 risk zone. Not all risk zones are driven by an elevated tornado threat. In this case, SPC added the Level 4 risk due to a very high chance of straight line winds becoming problematic as the line of storms crosses through parts of Mississippi tonight into early Saturday.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK LOCALLY… The highest risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts locally will happen in areas mainly along and west of Interstate 65, including parts of Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Choctaw, Marengo, and Wilcox counties. A Level 3 risk means that numerous severe thunderstorms are LIKELY, in this case on Saturday morning. Tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible. The main concern will likely be damaging straight line winds as opposed to numerous, large tornadoes.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST… Southern Mobile, southern Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Covington, and Butler counties are involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid tonight into Saturday. This means that scattered instances of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes will be possible, but most areas should simply have heavy rain, thunder, and lightning at times on Saturday morning.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY MORNING… 5AM to Noon is the 7 hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen across south Alabama and northwest Florida on Saturday morning. Rain could persist into the early afternoon hours, but clearing skies are expected in the afternoon and evening hours as storms continue to move eastward and out of our local area.
TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY… There is a fairly high chance that Sunday and Monday could be the driest days overall out of the next 7 days. Keep in mind that a rogue shower or two on Sunday into Monday cannot completely be ruled out, but rain chances will be much lower compared to today and Saturday. Highs temperatures on Sunday and on Monday will be in the low-80s.
MORE SHOWERS & STORMS NEXT WEEK; COOLER TEMPS POSSIBLE… Rain chances will again rise as we get into the middle part of the upcoming week. These showers and thunderstorms will be driven not by any strong advancing cold front, but instead by several shortwaves that will move across our area from west to east. This pattern would support rain and storms, but less in the way of severe storms, most likely.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!