SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY; SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING… Rain will become possible later today ahead of a chance of strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow (Saturday) morning. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include our local area in their severe weather risk zones with indications of all severe convective hazards (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) being possible. Saturday morning, probably between 4AM and 9AM, is when the best combination of “atmospheric ingredients” will be in place to support severe storms across our region. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings TONIGHT before you go to sleep, just in case we happen to have the need for a tornado warning overnight. Rain and storms will continue to be possible Saturday afternoon and evening before clearing out in the late evening and overnight hours. Much better weather is ahead for Sunday into Monday. Your Friday morning forecast notes are below.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN P.M. HOURS… Cloud coverage will increase throughout the day on this Friday. High temperatures will be in the mid- to upper-70s today. A few showers may develop, especially across west Alabama in areas west of the Alabama River, this evening into tonight ahead of our chance of storms across the region Saturday morning.
SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY… Severe thunderstorms will be possible overnight into Saturday morning, including a chance of a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail in the strongest of the storms. Our area remains involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk, meaning scattered instances of severe storms are possible.
GREATEST TORNADO RISK INLAND – SATURDAY MORNING… Make no mistake that the entire local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida has a severe weather risk late Friday night into Saturday, however, it appears the overall tornado risk may be slightly higher farther inland compared to communities closer to the coast. This means that Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Covington, Butler, Clarke, and Washington counties may have a slightly higher risk of severe storms compared to counties closer to the coast. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings, regardless of if you’re farther inland or closer to our local beaches.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – SATURDAY… The morning round of thunderstorms is expected to be the round when storms may be at their peak in terms of intensity on Saturday. Scattered storms may be severe as early as 2AM across parts of southwest Alabama. The main timeframe for severe storms will be from 4AM to 9AM. The better dynamics of this weather system will be moving out to the northeast, away from the higher surface-based instability values in the late morning hours. Thus, stronger storms may happen in the late morning, afternoon, and evening hours of Saturday, but the risk seems to be a bit lower. I expect heavy rain at times throughout the day with the severe weather risk being maximized in the morning hours.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… The Storm Prediction Center continues to include much of Alabama, all of northwest Florida and the Florida Panhandle region, southeast Mississippi, eastern Louisiana, and much of Georgia and South Carolina in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Saturday. This includes ALL of our local area in south Alabama and northwest Florida, including all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. A Level 2 risk means that scattered instances of severe storms will be possible, including a tornado potential in this case.
RAIN AMOUNTS GREATER TO OUR NORTH… Overall, rain amounts will probably be greater for communities just to our north across parts of central Mississippi and central Alabama where 1-3” of rain in total will be possible. For inland areas of southwest Alabama, approximately one inch of rainfall in total is expected with isolated higher amounts. Rain totals closer to the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches will probably be less, with most spots picking up between one half inch (0.5”) and 1 inch of rainfall in total.
CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY & SUNNY MONDAY… Rain is expected to clear out to our east late Saturday evening, paving the way for a nice Sunday. Clouds will clear out by the late morning hours in many locales across our region. High temperatures on Sunday will be around 80 by 2PM. Full sunshine is ahead for Monday with high temperatures likely to again be in the 80s.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MIDWEEK… Model guidance continues to point to a round of rain and thunderstorms for much of the Deep South in the middle part of the upcoming week, some time in the Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday range. Right now, the forecast in that range is very low confidence, partially because we need to get through this round of storms on Saturday. We will begin to focus more heavily on the midweek storm system on Sunday into Monday. Strong to severe storms could be possible across parts of the Deep South next week, but it remains too early for specifics. Please check back for updates in the days ahead.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Friday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!