70% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN GULF… Chances continue to increase that a tropical storm will form later this week in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center now suggests there is a 70% chance of a tropical storm forming over the next few days in the western Gulf of Mexico. This tropical disturbance is currently known as INVEST 92L. We note that Tropical Depression 2 formed earlier this morning off the coast of North Carolina in the western Atlantic Ocean. As it stands right now, that system is most likely to take the name “Bill” if and when it becomes a tropical storm later today. That means the disturbance in the southern Gulf (92L) will probably take the name “Claudette.”
LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT: RAIN LIKELY AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND, AT MINIMUM… This assessment has not changed since this morning. Rain chances will increase considerably on Saturday and Sunday as deep tropical moisture moves into our region. The most likely scenario, based on the ongoing global model guidance, shows this tropical storm potentially moving inland somewhere between Apalachicola, Florida on the east side to Brownsville, Texas on the west side. Obviously that is an extremely long stretch of coastline, indicating the ongoing uncertainty in the 5-7 day range. Depending on the exact track of the storm, other impacts, like tornadoes, gusty winds near the beaches, high surf and dangerous rip currents, and coastal flooding, may also become possible in our local area. It is too early to pinpoint exactly which impacts will be possible locally, but details should become more clear by midweek.
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I will have more updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a good Monday evening!