HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 TODAY; TRACKING INVEST 92L… Today may be the hottest day we have had so far in 2021 with high temperatures likely to be in the 95-97 degree range with heat index values likely to be in the 101-104 range by 3PM. We probably will see a few pop-up showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon into the evening hours. Tropical Storm Bill formed last night off the eastern coast of North Carolina. We also continue to monitor the tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that continues to meander around the Bay of Campeche. This system will likely move northward in the days ahead, probably as a tropical storm. In addition, yet another tropical disturbance has formed in the far eastern Atlantic. All of the details about these various meteorological features are below.
TROPICS: INVEST 92L IN GULF OF MEXICO… The disturbance we have been tracking over the last few days in the southern Gulf continues to meander in the Bay of Campeche this morning. It is difficult to know exactly when a tropical storm may form over the next few days, but the National Hurricane Center says there is a 70-80% chance of this happening through Saturday. Most likely, a messy, disorganized tropical storm will form later in the week with much of the convection (rain and thunderstorms) on the eastern side of the storm due to ongoing shear out of the southwest. While this shear will help to inhibit overall development of the storm and likely prevent it from becoming a stronger tropical storm or a hurricane, this also likely means heavier rain and more of a washout for our local area during the upcoming weekend.
TROPICS: LOCAL IMPACTS ASSESSMENT – 92L… Local impacts from the tropical disturbance currently located in the southern Gulf of Mexico appear to be becoming more likely, based on ongoing model data. In addition to increased rain chances this weekend that could result in “all day washout” conditions for both Saturday and Sunday (particularly for communities closer to the coast), the risk of isolated tornadoes may become possible at some point during the upcoming weekend, perhaps extending into early next week depending on the exact future track of this system. Landfall of this system will probably happen somewhere between Brownsville, Texas on the west side to Destin, Florida on the east side. Please keep in mind that even if the direct center of the storm makes landfall to our WEST (very high likelihood of that, at this point), that means our area would be located on the eastern flank of the storm, where most of the rain will happen. Flash flooding and perhaps even river and creek flooding may become possible this weekend into early next week. Dangerous rip currents, coastal flooding, and high surf may be possible at our Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend.
TROPICS: DISTURBANCE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF AFRICA… It is a bit unusual in the month of June to see a robust tropical wave emerge from Africa in the eastern Atlantic that poses a risk of actually developing into a tropical storm. These tropical waves usually don’t develop until late July, August, and into the peak of hurricane season in September. The National Hurricane Center says there is a 20% chance of a tropical storm developing near the Cabo Verde Islands, or perhaps just to the west of the islands in the Atlantic Ocean. From NHC: “A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is possible during the next few days before a combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical Atlantic Ocean late week.
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM BILL IN ATLANTIC… Advisories were initiated on Tropical Depression 2 yesterday morning. TD2 then strengthened to tropical storm status last night, taking the second name on the naming list this year: Bill. Tropical Storm Bill is moving northeast and away from the continental United States. The storm is located well to the northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina and continues to move away from land. There is a high chance Tropical Storm Bill will be absorbed into a larger frontal system in 24-36 hours. No direct local impacts in Alabama or northwest Florida are expected because of Tropical Storm Bill.
FEW P.M. SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY… Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times this afternoon into this evening. While I do not expect AS many showers and storms compared to the last few days, a few downpours will be possible. Widespread severe weather is not expected. The pop-up thunderstorms today will be “loud and proud,” with cloud-to-ground lightning, loud thunder, and torrential, localized downpours of rain being the main concerns.
LOWER RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Winds will shift from out of the north on Wednesday into Thursday, meaning slightly (emphasizing slightly!) lower humidity levels and definitely lower rain chances. I cannot completely rule out a shower or thunderstorm or two, even on Wednesday and Thursday, but I do think chances of rain will be much lower compared to previous days and certainly compared to the upcoming weekend when heavy rain will be possible.
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK… Deep tropical moisture associated with the tropical disturbance currently located in the southern Gulf will move into our area this weekend, meaning high rain chances and a chance for heavy rain at times. Friday will serve as a transition day of sorts with increasing chances of rain and storms. Saturday and Sunday very well could be near “all day washout” type days. We’ll keep watching trends and bring you the latest about the upcoming weekend over the next few days in the RedZone Weather app.
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See all the details in your Tuesday #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!