IMPACTS FROM EXPECTED TROPICAL STORM POSSIBLE LOCALLY THIS WEEKEND… Heavy rain and flash flooding may become possible this weekend as a tropical disturbance moves toward the northern Gulf Coast. This tropical disturbance, currently branded as INVEST 92L, is expected to become a tropical storm later in the week as it slowly moves northward across the western Gulf. The latest Quantitative Precipitation Forecast highlights nearly all of our local area picking up 5 to 8 inches of total rainfall over the next 7 days. In addition to the threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding, isolated tornadoes could become a possibility across our area, depending on the exact future track of the center of this storm. A few more Tuesday evening forecast notes are below.
POTENTIAL LOCAL IMPACTS – INVEST 92L… While considerable uncertainty remains regarding the exact future track of 92L (which will probably become Tropical Storm Claudette), confidence is increasing that our area will have heavy rain at times, especially closer to the immediate coast, that could lead to flash flooding. In addition, a threat of brief tornadoes will probably set up across at least part of our area at some point this weekend. Dangerous rip currents and high surf are likely at our Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend. Coastal flooding may also become a concern, depending on the exact future track of 92L. High winds of 40+ mph are NOT expected across south Alabama or northwest Florida at this time, although wind gusts of 20-30 mph may be possible near the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches this weekend. Power outages seem fairly unlikely to happen in our local area, based on current forecast guidance.
TUESDAY EVENING UPDATE – 92L… The tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico remains messy on this Tuesday evening, in that clusters of showers and thunderstorms are happening with no signs of any imminent formal development of the system over the next few hours. Here is the updated tropical weather discussion from the National Hurricane Center as of 8PM EDT this evening: “Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area. This system is expected to move little during the next day or two, and any development should be slow to occur during that time period due to its close proximity to land. However, the disturbance should begin to move northward by Thursday, and a tropical depression is likely to form late in the week when the low moves across the central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall will continue over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the next several days. Heavy rains could also begin to impact portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Friday.”
TROPICAL STORM BILL WEAKENING… Tropical Storm Bill remains no direct threat to any part of the United States. Bill is headed northeast over increasingly cooler waters in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean. There is a high chance Bill will become extratropical tonight or on Wednesday.
TROPICAL WAVE IN EASTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS WEAK… NHC flagged a strong tropical wave with a 20% chance of developing into a brief tropical storm in the eastern Atlantic Ocean this morning. Chances of formal development with that system are now less likely. NHC has dropped the probability of a tropical storm forming to a near 0% chance. Keep in mind, this system is closer to Africa than it is any part of North America. Regardless of if formal development were to happen, this system will likely never be a concern for our local area.
FEW STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR COAST ON WEDNESDAY… Most locales across south Alabama and northwest Florida will be dry on Wednesday, however I cannot completely rule out a few showers and thunderstorms near the immediate beach zones on Wednesday. A frontal boundary will slide southward across our area overnight, ushering in slightly drier air.
APP ALERTS… redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the free RedZone Weather app. We post brief updates throughout each day in the app, keeping you up-to-date about the latest happenings in weather across south Alabama and northwest Florida. Once you have the free app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) then tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video and long form text discussion posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning with the latest information on the tropics. Have a nice Tuesday evening!