30% CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN ATLANTIC… The National Hurricane Center is suggesting a tropical storm may form in the western Atlantic Ocean later this week or this weekend as a decaying frontal boundary continues to move southeast. This frontal boundary is actually situated very near our local area now, producing very little in the way of sensible weather. The system will move southeast in the days ahead and ultimately move offshore from Florida into the Atlantic Ocean where a tropical storm may form. Regardless of if this system becomes a tropical storm or not, direct local impacts in south Alabama and northwest Florida are not expected at this time. Good news! This system looks like more of a rainmaker for parts of the East Coast.
LATEST FROM NHC… “A broad trough of low pressure associated with a dissipated frontal system over Alabama and Georgia is forecast to move offshore of the southeastern United States coastline on Friday. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for some gradual development over the weekend and into early next week while the system meanders offshore the coasts of South Carolina, Georgia, and northeastern Florida.”
REMEMBER HURRICANE BARRY IN 2019… The last time I can recall that a decaying frontal boundary like this spinning up a tropical system over the Gulf of Mexico is Hurricane Barry that formed in mid-July of 2019. The origin of the hurricane, that ultimately made landfall in Louisiana, can be traced to a MCV (mesoscale convective vortex) that actually formed over the central U.S. near Arkansas and Kansas. While it isn’t exactly common to have a situation like this, it definitely is not unprecedented. We note that this system would not STRENGTHEN over land, but rather pieces of this system would ultimately become an area of low pressure over water in the Atlantic Ocean and then develop into a tropical storm IF the system develops. Tropical storms and hurricanes do not strengthen over land areas, with some exception if a storm is over a marshy, swampy environment like the Everglades.
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I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow morning. Have a nice Wednesday evening!