T.S. NICHOLAS IN THE WESTERN GULF; P.M. STORMS LIKELY LOCALLY TODAY… The 14th named tropical storm of the 2021 hurricane season, Tropical Storm Nicholas, is set to bring extreme rain amounts to parts of east Texas and western Louisiana later this week. Locally, we are not expecting major impacts due to Nicholas, although we will see a heightened chance of rip currents and potentially increased rain chances later this week due to the storm. Locally today, scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms are likely today, particularly in the P.M. hours. This intermittently wet, warm weather pattern is set to continue throughout the week. I’ve got all of your Monday morning forecast details below.
TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS MOVING TOWARD TEXAS COAST… This morning, we are tracking the latest tropical storm to develop in the Gulf of Mexico this year, Tropical Storm Nicholas. The center of Nicholas is centered a few hundred miles south-southeast of Houston, Texas. Nicholas will likely strengthen today as atmospheric shear over the system subsides somewhat. The National Hurricane Center notes that the storm may ramp up to a hurricane before landfall later this week along the Texas coast.
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS LIKELY IN EAST TEXAS & WESTERN LOUISIANA… The most significant impact from Tropical Storm Nicholas is likely to be the excessive rainfall that leads to all flooding hazards (flash flooding, river flooding, and urban flooding) in east Texas later this week. Some of the more reliable weather models are indicating the potential for 12-18″ of total rainfall for parts of eastern Texas. Western Louisiana is also expected to have excessive rainfall due to Tropical Storm Nicholas. Life threatening storm surge may be possible across certain locales along the Texas coast. A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for parts of Texas ahead of the arrival of Nicholas.
LOCAL IMPACTS DISCUSSION – TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS… Increased rain chances may be possible in our local area due to the influence of Tropical Storm Nicholas. Significant impacts, including tornadoes and high winds are not expected in our local area from Nicholas at this time. High waves and rip currents are likely at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches due to Tropical Storm Nicholas this week. Please do not get in the Gulf if a red flag is flying at your beach location.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO… A 50% chance of tropical development zone exists in the western Atlantic Ocean, north of Puerto Rico. From NHC: “An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the southeastern or central Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level trough. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week several hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas while it moves northwestward across the western Atlantic.”
TROPICAL WAVE SET TO EMERGE OFF AFRICAN COAST… It is the time of year when we have to carefully monitor each tropical wave that emerges from the African continent. A tropical wave that will emerge tomorrow or Wednesday has a 60% chance of becoming a named storm as the system moves west. Gradual development of the system is expected later this week.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR AZORES… This disturbance will not directly affect the continental United States. NHC says there is a 20% chance of a named storm forming. From NHC: “Shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located over the far northeastern Atlantic a few hundred miles east-northeast of the Azores. This system is forecast to move south-southeastward towards warmer waters, which could allow the low to gradually acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics during the next day or so. After that time, the system is forecast to move inland over Portugal ending any further development chance.”
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See all the details in your Monday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great start to your week!