WARMER THAN NORMAL WINTER LIKELY THIS YEAR, PER NOAA FORECAST… For the second consecutive year, NOAA is forecasting temperatures to be above our long term climatological norms for the upcoming winter season. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issues seasonal forecasts projecting the probability of temperatures and precipitation being above or below normal. The upcoming winter will likely be warmer than normal, mainly due to La Niña (explained in detail below). If you have been reading my content for awhile, you know that I do not put much stock into these long range outlooks. Even in “warmer than normal” winters, you can get some really cold air intrusions into the Deep South, sometimes featuring record cold.
WARM WINTER? BLAME LA NIÑA THIS YEAR… Long-time viewers and readers know I consistently caution against putting terribly too much faith in the seasonal outlooks issued this far in advance of any season. There ARE teleconnections and other factors that can help to give a broad overview of how hurricane season may pan out, however, any forecasts beyond 7 days out are prone to errors. One of these teleconnections is the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase, which refers to the sea surface temperatures near the Equator west of Ecuador in the Pacific Ocean. The NOAA forecast for the El Nino teleconnection is for “La Niña” conditions in a few months as the Northern Hemisphere goes through the winter season. Without getting TOO technical, teleconnections are observed weather conditions in other parts of the world that can have broad effects on local weather conditions. Generally speaking, La Nina conditions are usually more favorable for warmer than normal temperatures in winter for the Deep South along with drier conditions for the southern half of the country. Keep in mind that variances from the overall pattern are likely. We WILL, inevitably, have some severe weather issues over the next few months. Our core tornado season happens in the spring, but we do usually have an uptick in the number of tornadoes locally in November and December.
VARIANCES LIKELY; SNOW UNLIKELY YET STILL POSSIBLE… While the overall trend of warmer and drier conditions this winter will probably prevail, that does not mean that we won’t have some bitterly cold nights with lows in the 10s and 20s being possible. On the contrary, I would bet we probably will have some nights with lows in the 20s this winter. It almost always happens at least once or twice around our region each winter. As far as snow, there is no way to know whether any snow events will happen locally, although if you bet against any snow happening locally this winter, that is a bet that may pay off. Snow simply is not common around the Deep South. It DOES happen occasionally, but Alabama and Florida simply are low latitude states that don’t have much snow each year. It also never “gets cold and stays cold here.” Cold snaps, yes. Extended, months long cold, NO. It simply doesn’t happen that way. If you’re looking for pronounced cold, head north by about 400 miles.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
My next forecast video will be posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Friday) morning. Have a nice Thursday evening!