STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Thunderstorms capable of producing severe weather hazards, including damaging winds and tornadoes, will become possible Wednesday evening into the overnight hours, as a cold front approaches our area. The Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of south Alabama and northwest Florida in their Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk. This means that scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible. The main severe weather risk locally will likely happen in the hours after sunset Wednesday evening, meaning it is important that all of us have multiple ways to get urgent weather warnings before we go to sleep on Wednesday night. While we do have some amount of uncertainty as far as specifics, details are beginning to come together as far as what we can expect Wednesday night. More Sunday evening forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY NIGHT… The one significant change since my last severe weather update is the timing of the severe weather potential setting up for midweek. Strong to severe storms will likely set up to our west during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Our severe weather risk in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from 7PM Wednesday to 7AM on Thursday. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night before you go to sleep.
LINE OF STORMS TO SET UP TO OUR WEST ON WEDNESDAY… The storm system responsible for our severe weather potential on Wednesday evening into early Thursday will set up to our west on Tuesday. Strong storms will be possible across the southern Great Plains on Tuesday evening. This threat will shift eastward throughout the day on Wednesday. Most likely, a squall line (technically now known as a quasi-linear convective system or QLCS) will set up to our west and push into our area late Wednesday or early Thursday. Out ahead of the line of storms, a few supercell storms may be possible.
MAIN THREAT LIKELY TO BE DAMAGING WINDS; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Damaging “straight line” winds will probably end up being the main risk on Wednesday evening locally, although parameters do support the potential for a few tornadoes as well. Sometimes surprises happen in these QLCS-driven events. You can have one, singular supercell that produces a long track tornado or a short, distinctive path of large hail. Also, isolated areas of flash flooding can set up. Basically, all modes of severe weather will be possible Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. It cannot be stressed enough that everyone needs to have a way to get warnings during this event.
A LEVEL 2 RISK IS THE STANDARD “SLIGHT” RISK… Everyday, the Storm Prediction Center issues convective outlooks to help meteorologists identify and understand severe weather hazards that may happen across the U.S. The convective outlooks use a numbered risk-based system. The Level 1 (out of 5) risk is the low-end, marginal severe weather risk zone where severe storms could happen but are not as likely. On the other end of the scale, a Level 5 (out of 5) risk day means a tornado outbreak or extreme wind event is almost certain. Level 4 and Level 5 risk days are quite uncommon. The Level 2 risk means that a few severe storms may happen, including the potential for tornadoes. The fact is on MOST Level 2 risk days, MOST locales do not have major issues. However, this is not always the case. The Flomaton-Century EF3 tornado that happened on February 15, 2016 happened on a “Level 2 risk day.” Whether the risk is a Level 1 or Level 5 risk day, it is so important to have a way to get urgent weather warnings!
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ENTIRE LOCAL AREA… All of southern Alabama and northwest Florida continues to be involved in this Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone. This means we all have a risk of experiencing severe storms on Wednesday evening, perhaps extending into early Thursday morning. This Level 2 risk zone currently includes Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear, Seminole, Gateswood, Greenville, Georgiana, Chapman, Bolling, Grace, Garland, Oaky Streak, Daisy, Halso Mill, Starlington, Forest Home, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Coffeeville, Fulton, Carlton, Gainestown, Gosport, Whatley, Scyrene, Springfield, Chilton, Tallahatta Springs, Bashi, Woods Bluff, Campbell, Zimco, Toddtown, Salitpa, Suggsville, Alma, Dickinson, West Bend, Winn, Walker Springs, Evergreen, Castleberry, Owassa, Repton, Lenox, Range, Burnt Corn, Lyeffion, Centerville, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Old Sparta, Jay Villa, Belleville, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Rose Hill, Onycha, Red Oak, Green Bay, Straughn, Red Level, Gantt, Clearview, Carolina, Pleasant Home, Wing, Sanford, Libertyville, Eoda, Horn Hill, Lockhart, River Falls, Loango, Fairfield, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Riverview, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Barnett Crossroads, Pineview, Wawbeek, Canoe, Nokomis, Appleton, Kirkland, Dixie, Roberts, Damascus, Pollard/McCall, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay, Monroeville, Excel, Uriah, Frisco City, Megargal, Mineola, Chrysler, Goodway, Peterman, Tunnel Springs, Beatrice, Riley Crossing, Perdue Hill, Mexia, Scratch Ankle, Hybart, Franklin, Eliska, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Mary Esther, Wright, VPS, Eglin AFB, Crestview, Deerland, Campton, Auburn (FL), Baker, Holt, Milligan, Laurel Hill, Navarre, Jay, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Harold, Whiting Field, Chumuckla, New York, Brownsdale, Berrydale, Munson, Fidelis, McClellan, Mulat, Bagdad, Pine Bluff, Avalon Beach, Garcon Point, Whitfield, Allentown, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, and Malcolm.
STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS OUR AREA ON THURSDAY… One of the contributing reasons we are having our first severe weather setup of the fall severe weather season is a cold front pushing into the Deep South later this week. This front is expected to bring in much cooler, much drier air into our region by Friday afternoon. High temperatures by Friday will only be in the upper-60s with low temperatures in the 40s by Saturday morning. The upcoming weekend will be cool and dry.
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING… We are seeing a few showers across south Alabama and northwest Florida this evening. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will be possible tonight and into Monday morning. Widespread severe storms are not expected tonight or on Monday or Tuesday. You may, however, hear some raindrops on the roof or some thunder overnight.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video with a highly detailed assessment of the upcoming severe weather setup posted no later than 7:15AM tomorrow (Monday) morning. Have a nice Sunday evening!