STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY; OVERNIGHT RISK… Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible locally in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida and in areas just to our west on Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. We note that the timing of the overall severe weather risk has continued to gradually become later, thus we are now advertising the greatest risk of tornadoes and damaging winds in our area to be from 8PM Wednesday to 8AM Thursday. While the core of this risk is now centered a bit to our west, I am a bit concerned that we could have a few areas with trees down and maybe a tornado or two on Wednesday night into Thursday. Please have a way to get urgent weather warnings on Wednesday night before you go to sleep. A few more Monday evening forecast notes are below.
MAIN CONCERNS: DAMAGING WIND GUSTS & A FEW TORNADOES… The primary severe weather hazards on Wednesday night into Thursday will be damaging straight line winds and a few tornadoes. The tornado risk will almost certainly be maximized in areas closer to the immediate coast, thus if you are in Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia, Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, your tornado risk may be just a bit higher compared to areas farther inland. MOST communities will simply have rain at times Wednesday into Thursday. That is what you should expect, with rain for most and MOST (not all) of the severe weather issues being to our west. The concern is that one or two isolated severe storms may happen ahead of an advancing line of storms Wednesday night that may produce a few tornadoes or gusty winds.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY NIGHT… Strong to severe storms will likely set up to our west during the daytime hours of Wednesday. Our severe weather risk in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida will happen from 8PM Wednesday to 8AM on Thursday. This means that the risk is predominately in the overnight hours. Please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night before you go to sleep. Storms will enter from the west and gradually move across the region, likely exiting to our east no later than 8AM.
GREATEST RISK LOCALLY IN COASTAL ALABAMA; LEVEL 2 RISK… The Level 2 (out of 5) standard slight severe weather risk was trimmed back overnight and now includes only parts of Mobile and Baldwin counties locally. These are the zones that are most likely to have severe weather issues locally: Mobile, Prichard, Theodore, St. Elmo, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, West Mobile, Wilmer, Dawes, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Daphne, Fairhope, Montrose, Point Clear, Spanish Fort, Barnwell, Mobile Bay, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK IN PLACE TO OUR WEST… The core of the severe weather risk Wednesday into Wednesday night will set up just to our west across parts of Louisiana, eastern Texas, and southeast Mississippi. The Level 2 risk includes New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Houma, New Iberia, Hammond, Slidell, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Fort Polk, Alexandria, Natchitoches, Biloxi, Pascagoula, Ocean Springs, McComb, Natchez, Houston, Lufkin, Galveston, and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR MOST LOCALES… Much of the remainder of our local area (outside/north/west of the Level 2 risk zone) is included in the lower-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk zone. This is the zone where strong to severe storms may be possible, but the risk is less likely to happen. This zone includes Pensacola, Warrington, Molino, Walnut Hill, Century, Bratt, Byrneville, Milton, Pace, Berrydale, Allentown, Whiting Field, Jay, Chumuckla, Gulf Breeze, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Holt, Harold, Milligan, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Brewton, East Brewton, Atmore, Flomaton, Poarch, Huxford, Wallace, Pineview, Damascus, Bradley, Evergreen, Repton, Range, Brooklyn, Monroeville, Uriah, Perdue Hill, Excel, Frisco City, Eliska, Chrysler, Bay Minette, Rabun, Lottie, Stockton, Stapleton, Loxley, Robertsdale, Orange Beach, Lillian, Seminole, Elberta, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Saraland, Chatom, Millry, Vinegar Bend, McIntosh, Wagerville, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Jackson, Whatley, Fulton, Coffeeville, Woods Bluff, Salitpa, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, and surrounding areas.
“GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ZONE” FOR EASTERN COMMUNITIES… Much of Wilcox, Butler, Crenshaw, Covington, Walton, Geneva, Coffee, and eastern Okaloosa counties are now out of the formal severe weather risk zones and are included in the “general thunderstorms” zone. This is the zone where severe weather is far less likely to happen and general, loud thunderstorms will be possible. This zone includes Destin, Deerland, Niceville, Dorcas, Auburn (FL), Campton, Laurel Hill, Seaside, Santa Rosa Beach, Miramar Beach, DeFuniak Springs, Andalusia, Opp, Florala, Straughn, Gantt, Red Level, Lockhart, Owassa, Paul, Melrose, Beatrice, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Forest Home, Chapman, Troy, Enterprise, Elba, Geneva, Samson, Camden, Pine Apple, McWilliams, and Oak Hill.
APP ALERTS… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have your next full forecast video posted no later than 7:15AM tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Please let me know if you have any weather-related questions. Have a nice Monday evening!