SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY AT TIMES TODAY, TONIGHT, INTO THURSDAY… Thunderstorms will be possible at times on this Wednesday. Some of the storms could potentially be strong or severe, but at this time we are not expecting widespread, significant severe storms in south Alabama or northwest Florida. Clearly, the greater risk of strong to severe storms today will happen across the northern halves of Alabama and Mississippi. These are the zones involved in the slightly higher severe weather risk zones today into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has added a Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone for parts of northwest Alabama. Saturday into early Sunday may also feature strong to severe storms across parts of the Deep South. While it appears the better combination of “severe weather ingredients” may set up to our north on Saturday, part of the local area (inland areas) remains involved in the risk zone setting up for Saturday. A few more Wednesday morning forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING LOCALLY – THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY… Multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms will be possible today. Ongoing showers and storms across the region this morning will likely remain under severe limits in most cases. The more significant round of storms will happen in the evening and overnight hours, perhaps extending into Thursday morning. Keep in mind, this will be an event where there is a real chance storms simply do not fire up. There are questions as to just how much forcing will be available for storms, despite plenty of instability, moisture, and shear present. Expect showers and storms being possible throughout the day and into the evening hours.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE FOR ALL LOCAL COMMUNITIES… The Storm Prediction Center maintains ALL of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone valid for today, tonight, and extending into early Thursday. A Level 1 (out of 5) risk means that widespread severe weather is not expected, although a few strong to marginally severe storms may be possible. Any storms that become stronger will likely be highly isolated in nature. All parts of Covington, Butler, Escambia (AL), Conecuh, Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Mobile, Baldwin, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties are included in this low-end risk zone today into Thursday.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK ZONE ADDED FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA… Parts of northwest Alabama, northern Mississippi, far southeastern Arkansas, and southern Tennessee are involved in a Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk valid for today into tonight. These are the zones where the tornado risk will be maximized. A significant tornado or two may become possible in these areas. Florence, Muscle Shoals, Russellville, Moulton, and Ardmore are involved in this Level 3 risk zone in Alabama.
LEVEL 2 RISK ACROSS CENTRAL & NORTH ALABAMA… Much of the northern half of Alabama is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone. This zone is where scattered severe storms may happen, including a few tornadoes. This Level 2 risk zone includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Anniston, Gadsden, Talladega, Cullman, Double Springs, Centreville, Centre, Boaz, Jasper, Huntsville, and surrounding areas.
LINGERING STORMS INTO THURSDAY… Showers and thunderstorms will continue to be possible on Thursday throughout the day. Storms will likely be scattered in nature. We note the Storm Prediction Center continues to include all of our local area in their low-end severe weather risk zone valid mainly for the morning hours of Thursday. The tornado risk locally on Thursday will remain low, but perhaps not entirely zero.
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEW YEAR’S EVE… Severe storms are unlikely on Friday, although a few showers and perhaps a few general thunderstorms may be possible. High temperatures on Friday will continue to be above our seasonal norms for this time of year with most spots reaching the upper-70s.
ANOTHER, SEPARATE SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY… A more significant round of strong to severe storms will likely happen across parts of the Deep South on New Year’s Day (Saturday). The Storm Prediction Center has much of Alabama and Mississippi (including inland areas of southwest Alabama) in their Level 2 risk zone valid for Saturday into early Sunday. Just like with this event on Wednesday, it appears the greater dynamics of this system will likely pass a bit farther to our north, although we still may have a few strong to severe storms happen in our local area. Let’s get through the first risk zone today into tomorrow and then we will start to focus on the weekend event.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
SET UP APP ALERTS… We send quite a bit of Low-Level Alerts in our RedZone Weather app. The app is totally free for you! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you see the download links to your respective app store for iOS and for Android devices. Once you have the app downloaded to your smartphone or tablet device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
See all the details in your Wednesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!