STRONG TORNADOES & DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT; NICE TUESDAY… A potentially substantial severe weather event is likely to set up Wednesday into early Thursday will be possible across much of the Deep South, including ALL of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. Tomorrow into tomorrow night will definitely be a day when we all need a good, reliable way to get urgent weather info as tornado warnings and severe thunderstorm warnings will likely be required. The Storm Prediction Center now includes much of our local area in their Level 4 and Level 3 (out of 5) risk zones, meaning severe storms will be likely at times Wednesday evening into early Thursday. We note the threat of strong (EF2+) tornadoes has increased along with the threat of significant, damaging wind gusts. Before we get to the severe weather tomorrow, a nice Tuesday is on tap. High temperatures will again be in the mid-80s today. Beyond the severe weather risk on Wednesday night into Thursday, dry conditions will prevail for Thursday evening into Friday ahead of another chance of rain and thunderstorms this weekend. I’ve got all of your Tuesday morning forecast details below.
MAINLY SUNNY TODAY; FEW MORE CLOUDS TONIGHT… Plenty of sunshine will cause temperatures to quickly surge into the 80s around midday. High temperatures will be around 85 this afternoon. I expect cloud coverage to increase later today ahead of increasing rain chances on Wednesday.
RAIN & STORMS LIKELY WEDNESDAY… Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage on Wednesday from west to east across the region. While showers and storms will likely remain spotty, some of the storms on Wednesday afternoon and evening may produce heavy rain. The severe weather risk though 6PM Wednesday remains low. After 6PM, however, the risk will likely ramp up rather quickly – first over west Alabama and then spreading eastward across the region.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY… Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning is when the primary severe weather risk will likely set up across south Alabama and northwest Florida. 6PM Wednesday to 6AM Thursday is the 12 hour window when severe weather threat will likely maximize across our area. 9PM to 3AM looks to be the 6 hour “core risk” window for local areas. Again, please have a way to get warnings Wednesday night.
STRONG TORNADOES & DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE… The Storm Prediction Center notes that a few significant or strong (EF2+) tornadoes will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday night, particularly across Mississippi and west Alabama. The overall risk of damaging winds may be a bit higher across our local area compared to the last few severe weather events we have had in previous weeks. Damaging straight line winds can often cause damage that rivals tornado damage. If your area goes under a severe thunderstorm warning later this week, this will definitely be a time to take those warnings (in addition to tornado warnings!) seriously. In addition, this is perhaps the most significant tornado threat our area has had so far this year. The entire local area in southwest Alabama and northwest Florida is now involved in the higher tier (Levels 3 and 4) severe weather risk zones.
LEVEL 4 (OUT OF 5) SUBSTANTIAL RISK FOR WEST ALABAMA AND POINTS WEST… The highest tornado risk will likely set up across parts of Monroe, Clarke, Washington, Marengo, Wilcox, and Choctaw counties in southwest Alabama. This includes places like Thomasville, Monroeville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Gosport, Leroy, Chatom, Millry, Vinegar Bend, Wagerville, St. Stephens, Salitpa, Butler, Gilbertown, Toxey, Pennington, Linden, Sweet Water, Demopolis, Camden, and Pine Hill. We also note this Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk includes places to our north such as Tuscaloosa, Demopolis, Livingston, Aliceville, Hamilton, Selma, Marion, Eutaw, Centreville, Jasper, and Double Springs. A Level 4 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk means that severe storms are likely with some of the storms likely being intense and/or long-lasting. Much of Mississippi and part of Louisiana is also involved in this Level 4 (out of 5) risk zone, including places like Jackson (MS), Starkville (MS), Meridian (MS), Hattiesburg (MS), Baton Rouge (LA), Alexandria (LA), and surrounding areas.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR MUCH OF OUR LOCAL AREA… Much of our local area is now involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) enhanced severe weather risk zone valid Wednesday into early Thursday. This is the zone where scattered severe thunderstorms, including strong tornadoes, may be possible. This Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone currently includes Mobile, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Theodore, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Bay Minette, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Tensaw, Atmore, Brewton, East Brewton, Poarch, Flomaton, Huxford, Pineview, Walnut Hill, Gonzalez, Molino, McDavid, Century, Jay, Milton, Pace, Andalusia, Evergreen, Repton, Castleberry, Owassa, Range, Lenox, Brooklyn, Excel, Frisco City, Uriah, Beatrice, Greenville, Forest Home, Georgiana, McKenzie, Fort Morgan, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Pensacola, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Destin, Mary Esther, Eglin AFB, Niceville, Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Florala, Onycha, and Opp.
Don’t get so caught up in the overall color/risk zone your specific community is involved in as both the Level 3, Level 4, and Level 5 risk zones are all quite significant. Tornadoes and damaging winds will be serious concerns tomorrow into tomorrow night!
DRY FRIDAY AHEAD OF STORMS THIS WEEKEND… We get a break from the rain and thunderstorms on Friday ahead of more rain and more thunderstorms being possible on both Saturday and Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be a bit more scattered this weekend and the overall severe weather risk will likely be low (but perhaps not zero). We will focus on the weekend storm details once we get through this midweek event.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
I will have updates posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Tuesday!