FRIDAY SEVERE WEATHER RISK MAXIMIZES AROUND MIDDAY; GREATER RISK INLAND… Scattered thunderstorms may become severe at times on Friday with the greatest chance of severe weather happening in the late morning and early afternoon hours. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be the concerns on Friday as multiple waves of thunderstorms move from west to east across our region. The first round of storms may arrive very early in the morning hours (before sunrise). This round of storms will likely be weaker in nature compared to the second round, which may be more intense in the middle part of the day. The overall tornado risk will be maximized across inland areas AND on the eastern side of our region in parts of Monroe, Butler, Conecuh, Covington, and Crenshaw counties. These are the zones involved in the enhanced Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk on Friday. Everyone else across the region is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk where scattered severe storms may be possible. A few more Thursday evening forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – FRIDAY… Multiple waves of thunderstorms will be possible overnight and into Friday. The first batch of storms is expected to be fairly weak. This cluster of thunderstorms will likely weaken progressively as it moves across our region from west to east. This first group of storms will likely reach west Alabama in the 3-5AM range. The second, more intense round of storms will likely kick off around 8-10AM and gradually move across our region around midday. Storms will likely be completely to our east and out of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida by 2PM at the latest. Note there is a very real chance some communities across northwest Florida and coastal Alabama could come through this event without any rainfall. Storms will be fairly scattered in nature, meaning some communities may not get any rain.
LEVEL 3 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK… The Storm Prediction Center chose to upgrade parts of south-central and east Alabama into their Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk valid for Friday. A Level 3 (out of 5) severe weather risk means that scattered severe storms are likely and some of the storms may be intense. The Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone includes parts of Covington, Conecuh, Monroe, and Butler counties locally, including places like Andalusia, Opp, Straughn, Red Level, River Falls, Carolina, Clearview, Gantt, Rose Hill, South, Brooks, Evergreen, Repton, Range, Lenox, Brooklyn, Paul, Melrose, Johnsonville, Owassa, Greenville, Georgiana, McKenzie, Starlington, Forest Home, Daisy, Oaky Streak, Monroeville, Beatrice, Old Texas, Tunnel Springs, Peterman, and surrounding areas. We note that other communities in parts of southeast and east Alabama are also involved in the Level 3 (out of 5) risk zone: Enterprise, Elba, Ft. Rucker, Abbeville, Eufaula, Troy, Brundidge, Luverne, Brantley, Highland Home, Ft. Deposit, Hayneville, Montgomery, Prattville, Wetumpka, Auburn, Lake Martin, Alexander City, Dadeville, Union Springs, Valley, Lanett, Roanoke, Smiths Station, and Phenix City. Areas near Columbus (GA), Macon (GA), and the southern side of Atlanta (GA) are also involved in the Level 3 risk zone.
LEVEL 2 (OUT OF 5) RISK FOR ALL OTHER LOCAL COMMUNITIES… Everyone else (outside of the higher Level 3 out of 5 risk discussed above) is involved in the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone locally. A Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone means scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible, including the potential for tornadoes, gusty winds, and large hail. This Level 2 (out of 5) risk zone currently includes Mobile, Prichard, Creola, Saraland, Satsuma, Chickasaw, Wilmer, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, West Mobile, Theodore, Bayou La Batre, Sunny Cove, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Coden, Dawes, Mauvila, Turnerville, Daphne, Fairhope, Montrose, Bay Minette, Spanish Fort, Bromley, Stapleton, Stockton, Foley, Orange Beach, Gulf Shores, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Summerdale, Robertsdale, Gateswood, Loxley, Perdido, Elsanor, Elberta, Tensaw, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Sardine, Wawbeek, Canoe, Flomaton, Brewton, East Brewton, Riverview, Dixonville, Bradley, Century, Brett, Walnut Hill, Molino, Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, NAS Pensacola, Perdido Key, Gonzalez, McDavid, Jay, Berrydale, Whitfield, Whiting Field, Allentown, Chumuckla, Milton, Pace, Pea Ridge, Gulf Breeze, Pensacola Beach, Navarre, Opal Beach, Floridale, Floridatown, Munson, Laurel Hill, Escambia Farms, Baker, Milligan, Crestview, Campton, Deerland, Dorcas, Destin, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Niceville, Wing, Florala, Uriah, Perdue Hill, Megargal, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Scyrene, Fulton, Chatom, Millry, Wagerville, Leroy, McIntosh, Vinegar Bend, Deer Park, and St. Stephens. The Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk also includes many more communities across Alabama, including places like Birmingham, Tuscaloosa, Dothan, Talladega, Demopolis, Selma, Huntsville, Gadsden, Clanton, Geneva, and Butler.
NICER WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND… After storms move out early Friday afternoon, we will trend drier and warmer for Saturday and Sunday. High temperatures will be in the upper-80s and near 90 each day with mostly sunny skies on both days.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Many updates will be posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, yellow “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
I will have your next full forecast video posted by 7:15AM tomorrow (Friday) morning. Until then, more updates will be posted overnight in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Thursday evening!