STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY; HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105°… Thunderstorms slated to pop up this afternoon into this evening may be strong or even marginally severe as atmospheric instability increases across the region on this Tuesday. The main concern in any thunderstorms that become severe will be the potential for damaging straight line winds. The overall tornado risk remains very low, if not zero in most spots. High temperatures will be in the mid-90s but when factoring in the humidity, you get a heat index value well in excess of 100 degrees. Some spots will have heat index values in the 105-110° range this afternoon. Another round of strong thunderstorms will be possible across the region on Wednesday in the afternoon and evening hours. Rain chances will increase later this week. A few more Wednesday morning forecast notes are below.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – TUESDAY… 2PM to 10PM remains the 8 hour window when strong to severe thunderstorms will be most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida today. The main window will be from 4PM to 8PM. While tornado warnings are unlikely, severe thunderstorm warnings will probably be needed at times this evening. If your specific location goes under a severe thunderstorm warning, get inside quickly. We have, unfortunately, lost too many people just this year due to lightning strikes. If you’re close enough to a thunderstorm to hear the thunder, you’re in range of the lightning strikes. “When thunder roars, go indoors.”
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5) SEVERE WEATHER RISK – THIS EVENING… The western part of our area remains involved in this low-end severe weather risk zone. A Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk means that a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible, but the overall risk remains quite low for any given community. The following communities are involved in the low-end risk zone today into this evening: Mobile, Prichard, Citronelle, Mt. Vernon, Creola, Satsuma, Saraland, Calvert, Wilmer, West Mobile, Bayou La Batre, Coden, Alabama Port, Dauphin Island, Theodore, Crichton, Tanner Williams, Tillmans Corner, Chunchula, Grand Bay, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Fort Morgan, Magnolia Springs, Foley, Elberta, Elsanor, Robertsdale, Summerdale, Silverhill, Montrose, Loxley, Stapleton, Bay Minette, Stockton, Rabun, Perdido, Tensaw, Point Clear, Pensacola, Pensacola Beach, Perdido Key, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Molino, Walnut Hill, Bratt, Century, Ensley, Gonzalez, Cantonment, Quintette, McDavid, Milton, Pace, Gulf Breeze, Pea Ridge, Chumuckla, Allentown, Jay, Brownsdale, Uriah, Megargal, Eliska, Jackson, Toddtown, Grove Hill, Whatley, Allen, Suggsville, Coffeeville, Zimco, Chatom, Leroy, McIntosh, Millry, Deer Park, Vinegar Bend, Fruitdale, Yellow Pine, Copeland, Yarbo, Jordan, Bigbee, St. Stephens, Tibbie, Sims Chapel, Sunflower, Malcolm, Silas, Toxey, and Gilbertown.
20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN GULF… The National Hurricane Center indicates there is a low-end (20-30%) chance of a tropical storm developing later this week or this weekend as a tropical wave moves northeast from the Caribbean Sea. The disturbance will likely move into the Bay of Campeche by Friday. From NHC: “A tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of low pressure could form by the end of this week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend.” Early model projections continue to show a consistent northwesterly movement toward mainland Mexico. It is a bit too early to write this system off completely, but the trends have certainly been encouraging to suggest this may not be a threat to the local area. I’ll keep monitoring the trends and let you know if changes happen.
MORE STORMS LATER THIS WEEK… Rain chances will increase in the days ahead as atmospheric moisture provides plenty of fuel for pop-up thunderstorms. Most of the thunderstorms will happen in the afternoon and evening hours each day. There is a low-end risk of a few strong storms on Wednesday evening, similar to what is in place later today. Fortunately, there is no discernible tornado risk today or tomorrow.
APP… If you haven’t already downloaded the RedZone Weather app, now is a great time to do that. redzoneweather.com/app is the link to the free download. Once you have the RZW app installed on your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab to turn on the specific notifications you’d like to receive. All notifications are handcrafted by me. No automation and we promise not to bug you!
See all the details in your Tuesday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!