SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY; WATCHING INVEST 98L CAREFULLY… Sunny skies are expected on this Friday and again on Saturday across the local area as we continue to closely monitor the developing tropical system in the central Caribbean Sea. That tropical wave, branded as INVEST 98L, is located north of Venezuela and southeast of Jamaica this morning. I realize many folks are reading this discussion this morning in hopes of finding out exactly where 98L will move. Unfortunately, we simply do not have a clear answer for that just yet and we probably won’t know more details until Sunday or Monday at the earliest. See more details about this in the “ample uncertainty” paragraph below. Dry conditions are expected locally today with high temperatures likely to be in the upper-80s. Temperatures won’t be AS hot as previous days as a frontal boundary moved across our region overnight. We have another cold front slated to move by early next week that will usher in slightly cooler, drier air. A few more Friday morning forecast notes are below.
TROPICS: INVEST 98L IN CARIBBEAN SEA… This morning, all eyes are on INVEST 98L in the Caribbean Sea. This system is currently an area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave. The National Hurricane Center continues to indicate there is a 90% chance of this system becoming a named tropical storm as a westward movement trend continues. 98L will likely turn more to the northwest at some point over the weekend, probably when the system is close to Jamaica. It is at this point that a low-level center of circulation should be defined. Beyond this point, the system will likely move into the northwest Caribbean Sea and become a hurricane. While many models do show movement into the Gulf of Mexico, we note that some model guidance points to more of an easterly track toward the Florida Peninsula. It is simply too early to say with confidence where 98L ends up.
TROPICS: AMPLE UNCERTAINTY TO PERSIST CONCERNING 98L… The latest model guidance for INVEST 98L continues to show varying solutions regarding where the developing system will ultimately end up. I expect this wide model spread to continue until a low-level center of circulation forms in association with 98L. This will probably happen some time tonight, on Saturday, or on Sunday as 98L approaches Jamaica. Once a low-level center of circulation forms, model guidance should begin to converge on the exact future track of the system.
TROPICS: HURRICANE FIONA TO MOVE INTO MARITIME CANADA… Hurricane Fiona remains a large, major hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean fairly close to Bermuda on this Friday morning. Fiona has prompted a Hurricane Warning for parts of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland in Canada, where high winds and large waves are expected. Fiona will likely be transitioning to extratropical status ahead of landfall, but that probably won’t make much of a difference in terms of impacts. This could be a damaging storm for parts of eastern Canada as hurricane force winds are likely.
TROPICS: TROPICAL STORM GASTON POSES NO THREAT TO USA… Tropical Storm Gaston is located in the northeast Atlantic Ocean. The storm has prompted a Tropical Storm Warning for The Azores as the center of Gaston is expected to turn south before looping back to the west and out to sea. No direct impacts are expected from Gaston in North America.
TROPICS: TWO TROPICAL WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC… In addition to 98L, Fiona, and Gaston, two other tropical waves are noted this morning in the Atlantic Ocean. One tropical wave is located about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. This tropical wave has a 30% chance of briefly becoming a tropical storm over the next few days. Another, separate tropical wave is located near the African coast and the Cabo Verde Islands.
COLD FRONT TO MOVE BY ON MONDAY; SHOWERS & STORMS POSSIBLE… Our next rain chance across south Alabama and northwest Florida will happen on Sunday into Monday as a cold front moves across our region. This frontal boundary will usher in slightly cooler, drier air into the region on Monday. Overnight lows on Tuesday morning will be in the upper-50s in many spots locally. High temperatures next week will be in the mid-80s.
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See all the details in your Friday morning #rzw forecast video. Have a great day!