DISTURBANCE IN GULF TO MOVE TOWARD FLORIDA PENINSULA; HURRICANE SEASON ABOUT TO BEGIN… Hurricane season officially kicks off on Thursday, but we are already watching our first Gulf disturbance of the year. This system is moving toward the Florida Peninsula (not the Panhandle where we are, but the Peninsula) where rain and thunderstorms are expected in the days ahead. Significant local impacts are not expected in south Alabama or northwest Florida from this system, regardless of if formal development happens. Locally, more pop-up P.M. storms are in the forecast over the next several days.
20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM FORMATION… The National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates this developing disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico has a 10-20% chance of becoming a named tropical storm over the next 5-7 days. Here is the discussion from NHC: “An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated with a surface trough of low pressure interacting with an upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only marginally favorable for additional development over the next several days as the system meanders over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The system is then forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula this weekend and emerge into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by early next week. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the Florida Peninsula later this week.”
LOCAL IMPACTS FROM DISTURBANCE: INCREASED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY… Pop-up thunderstorms will continue to be the norm across south Alabama and northwest Florida over the next several days. Rain chances will be particularly elevated on Thursday when Gulf moisture will be most pronounced across the local area. In addition to higher rain chances on Thursday, the risk of rip currents will be elevated at the Alabama and northwest Florida beaches through Friday. Widespread, significant severe weather is NOT expected across Alabama or northwest Florida from the disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico.
BIG RAIN EVENT AHEAD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA… The main impact in the United States from this developing tropical disturbance will be the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the central and southern parts of Florida. Places in or near Tampa, Ft. Myers, Miami, Fort Lauderdale, and the Florida Keys may pick up 2-4″ of rainfall through the weekend.
HURRICANE SEASON KICKS OFF THURSDAY… The official start of the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season happens this Thursday, June 1. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is forecasting a “near normal” season with 12 to 17 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 1 to 4 major hurricanes. I always caution folks to not really get caught up in the seasonal outlooks as it only takes one storm to make a hurricane season memorable for our specific local area.
APP… If you haven’t already, be sure to download the free RedZone Weather app to keep up with all the latest information on the world of weather in south Alabama and northwest Florida. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Once you have the app downloaded to your iOS or Android device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner) and tap the large, yellow Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
I will have a detailed look at the local forecast tomorrow morning in the next regularly scheduled video that will debut by 7:15AM.
Have a nice Tuesday evening!