LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK INTO TONIGHT; SEVERE STORMS LIKELY MONDAY… Rain chances will increase throughout the day on this Friday across south Alabama and northwest Florida ahead of a low-end chance of a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms becoming possible this evening into tonight. The overall severe weather risk this evening is LOW, but not entirely zero near the coast. Farther inland, north of U.S. Highway 84 specifically, the severe weather risk is much closer to zero. A couple of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts are the concerns in the stronger storms this evening into tonight. I suspect we will be able to give a final “all clear” in the RedZone Weather app by 2AM. Our focus after the event tonight will shift to Monday. That is when we may have a more significant severe weather risk. First things first though, let’s get through the severe weather risk tonight THEN we will focus on the Monday risk this weekend.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – THIS EVENING… 6PM to midnight tonight is the six hour window when strong to severe storms will be most likely to happen across our local area. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms may start across the region as early as Noon or 1PM but the severe weather risk will not ramp up until this evening when a narrow band of surface-based instability likely moves from west to east across our region. Just like the last few severe weather risks we have had in December, there is a chance with this lower-end risk that the surface-based instability simply remains offshore. In that case, there would be no severe weather locally and our area would simply see rain with some general thunderstorms closer to the coast.
LEVEL 1 (OUT OF 5), LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK NEAR COAST THIS EVENING… Coastal counties of Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in the low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk this evening. A Level 1 (out of 5) severe weather risk means there is a small (not zero, but small) chance of a few strong to severe storms. Most of the time when a Level 1 risk is in place, significant issues do not happen. Occasionally, however, you can get a tornado or two forming in a low-end risk zone. This low-end severe weather risk zone includes places like Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Daphne, Fairhope, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Bay Minette, Walnut Hill, Century, Molino, Pensacola, Ensley, Warrington, Perdido Key, Pensacola Beach, Gulf Breeze, Tiger Point, Milton, Pace, Chumuckla, Jay, Berrydale, Whiting Field, Point Baker, Navarre, Crestview, Baker, Destin, Niceville, Fort Walton Beach, Mary Esther, Santa Rosa Beach, Seaside, Freeport, and surrounding areas.
A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO, DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING… Big question marks remain as to IF any surface-based instability can reach the shoreline of south Alabama and northwest Florida this evening. There may be a very brief opportunity for this to happen, specifically between 6PM and midnight, thus allowing a few strong to severe storms. There is an even larger chance this evening, however, that our local area simply experiences rain and general (non-severe) thunderstorms at times. As always, if we happen to have tornado warnings tonight, join me in LIVE coverage as we bring you the latest information.
MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS WEEKEND… Showers will clear out in the morning hours of Saturday, probably before sunrise in many locations across the region. Drier conditions will prevail in the afternoon and evening hours on Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low-60s on Saturday and on Sunday with overnight lows in the 40s. Sunday will be a dry, mostly cloudy day.
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY P.M. INTO TUESDAY MORNING… Active weather returns on Monday into early Tuesday as an area of low pressure develops to our west and gradually pushes toward our region on Monday evening. The overall risk of severe weather is increasing for Monday across our local area. A few tornadoes, damaging straight line wind gusts, large hail, and flash flooding will be possible on Monday into early Tuesday as this system moves by our region. Some of the tornadoes that happen on Monday into Tuesday across parts of the Deep South have the potential to be strong, thus it is extremely important that we continue to monitor this developing situation over the weekend as we continue to refine specifics of what you can expect.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP… Many updates will be posted throughout the day and throughout the weekend in the RedZone Weather app. redzoneweather.com/app is the link for the free download. Be sure to visit the Alerts tab (bottom right corner) and tap the large, “Alert Settings” button to customize the alerts you’d like to receive from me. If you like a lot of info, be sure to toggle ON Low-Level Alerts.
Many more updates will be posted this evening in the RedZone Weather app. Have a nice Friday!