SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY; TORNADOES POSSIBLE… Severe storms capable of producing a few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, hail, and flash flooding will become possible on Monday night into Tuesday morning across south Alabama and northwest Florida. The Storm Prediction Center has a Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk zone in place for ALL of southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. While it is not a certainty that we will have severe storms at this point, it is increasingly likely parts of our area will have gusty winds and perhaps a few tornadoes. Before we get to the Monday night severe weather risk, our weather pattern will be partly cloudy today and Sunday. A few more Saturday morning forecast notes are below.
PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY MORNING… Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds on this Saturday. High temperatures will be in the low-60s today. Partly cloudy skies will continue into tonight and into Sunday. Overnight lows will be around the 40 degree mark by 6AM Sunday, followed by high temperatures in the upper-50s tomorrow.
SEVERE WEATHER TIMING – MONDAY INTO TUESDAY… Scattered showers will become possible Monday evening but the overall severe weather risk locally is not expected to ramp up until after sunset. Please keep in mind that we are still 48+ hours out from this severe weather risk and timing changes will be possible. 9PM Monday to 9AM Tuesday is the 12 hour window when strong to severe storms seem most likely to happen across southwest Alabama and northwest Florida. That means, unfortunately, this will probably be a noctural/nighttime event for some communities. Please have a way to hear warnings before you go to sleep Monday night!
SEVERE WEATHER UNCERTAINTY… The main reason the Storm Prediction Center decided to maintain the Level 2 (out of 5) severe weather risk and not upgrade to a higher level is because there is some uncertainty regarding specifics for IF convection will be ongoing in the Gulf of Mexico that may “block the inflow” for thunderstorms on Monday night into Tuesday. If that scenario happens, it would not just keep the risk low, it would largely eliminate any risk of severe storms locally. Confidence is a bit higher with this round of storms, however, that at least SOME unstable air will be able to propagate farther inland, unlike in the last few rain events. This means that the greatest probability of severe weather happening will be closer to the coast.
TORNADO WARNING POLICY… Any time there is an active tornado warning in effect for southwest Alabama or northwest Florida, we provide uninterrupted, live video coverage on Facebook Live and in the RedZone Weather app. Our detailed coverage commitment is outlined at redzoneweather.com/coverage. We are proud to cover all parts of Escambia (AL), Covington, Monroe, Conecuh, Baldwin, Mobile, Clarke, Washington, Butler, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, and Okaloosa counties. If you live in any locale in those counties, be sure to tune into our coverage whenever there is an active tornado warning!
APP ALERTS… Now is the time, long before we get to this severe weather potential, to set up the RedZone Weather app on your smartphone! redzoneweather.com/app is the link where you can download the iOS or Android version of the app. Once you have the app downloaded to your device, be sure to visit the Alerts tab (lower right corner of the app), then tap the large, Alert Settings button to customize the alerts you would like to receive straight from me.
NEXT UPDATE… I will have the latest information posted throughout the day in the RedZone Weather app, followed by another detailed update tomorrow (Sunday) morning by 7:15AM.
Have a nice Saturday!