MULTIPLE WAVES OF ACTIVE WEATHER AHEAD… RZW Exec partners, good Monday afternoon! We have multiple periods of active weather coming up over the next 48-72 hours. The first round of storms will happen Tuesday evening. For most spots, Tuesday will feature rain at times with the potential for heavy rain. There could, however, be a brief tornado or two across inland counties. The second, potentially more potent, round of storms will happen on Wednesday. The southern half of our local area is involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk zone on Wednesday, meaning scattered severe storms will be possible. Perhaps the biggest question on everyone’s mind is when will the rain and storms come to an end? The answer to that is Thursday, most likely midday when rain will clear out to the east of our area. If we happen to have tornado warnings at any point over the next 72 hours, be sure to join me on Facebook Live or in the Live tab in the RedZone Weather app. If you have specific decision support needs, please let me know. More details are below.
LOW-END SEVERE WEATHER RISK INLAND TUESDAY… There is a low-end chance that some of the storms that fire up later Tuesday evening into the overnight hours of Wednesday morning could briefly become strong or severe. That is why the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included much of the northern half of our region in their low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) marginal severe weather risk valid for Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours. The concern is that we may have a brief tornado or two in addition to damaging wind gusts in the stronger storms.
HAZARD PLACEMENT TUESDAY: INLAND… SPC maintains a Level 1 (out of 5) low-end severe weather risk for inland parts of south Alabama valid Tuesday. If you’re in Monroe, Conecuh, Escambia (AL), Covington, Butler, Clarke, Washington, Choctaw, Wilcox, or Crenshaw counties, you are involved in this low-end risk. This includes Monroeville, Beatrice, Uriah, Frisco City, Excel, Repton, Range, Lenox, Owassa, Evergreen, Castleberry, Johnsonville, Brooklyn, Brewton, East Brewton, Flomaton, Atmore, Poarch, Huxford, Chatom, Fruitdale, McIntosh, Wagerville, Leroy, Gilbertown, Toxey, Silas, Butler, Thomasville, Jackson, Grove Hill, Coffeeville, Whatley, Greenville, Georgiana, Forest Home, McKenzie, Red Level, Andalusia, River Falls, Opp, Straughn, and surrounding areas.
WHAT TO EXPECT TUESDAY – STORMS AT TIMES… Intermittent showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day on Tuesday. I expect the coverage of showers and storms to ramp up as we get into the afternoon and evening hours when storms have more instability in place.
STORMS FADE AWAY OVERNIGHT… Storms may linger into the evening hours, but I expect an overall lull in storms overnight into the early part of Wednesday morning. Rain and storm coverage will increase as we move toward dawn on Wednesday. As a course of least regret, I would have a way to receive urgent weather warnings Tuesday night before you go to sleep just in case we have a rogue storm or two ramp up, but I certainly am not expecting widespread issues in the overnight hours.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WEDNESDAY… Coastal areas in Alabama and northwest Florida are involved in a Level 2 (out of 5) slight severe weather risk valid for Wednesday, March 4 in the latest SPC convective outlook. There is a concern that a warm front may lift far enough inland/northward that part of our area near the immediate coast may be in the warm sector. This would allow strong to severe storms to happen, primarily in areas near the coast. Inland areas are involved in a low-end, Level 1 (out of 5) risk zone on Wednesday due to a chance of hail in the stronger storms.
TORNADO RISK NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY… The tornado risk on Wednesday will be conditional upon a warm front lifting northward into our area. There is still a chance, based on some model guidance, that the warm front may remain offshore, thus limiting the overall chance of severe weather. If you are in Baldwin, Mobile, Escambia (FL), Santa Rosa, or Okaloosa counties, you are involved in this slightly higher Level 2 risk area valid for Wednesday. This includes areas near Fairhope, Daphne, Spanish Fort, Gulf Shores, Orange Beach, Foley, Elberta, Magnolia Springs, Bay Minette, Loxley, Stapleton, Stockton, Mobile, Prichard, Saraland, Satsuma, Theodore, Dauphin Island, Wilmer, Mt. Vernon, Citronelle, Creola, Pensacola, Century, Molino, Walnut Hill, Warrington, Myrtle Grove, Milton, Pace, Jay, Chumuckla, Navarre, Destin, Fort Walton Beach, Crestview, Baker, and surrounding areas.
HEAVY RAIN & ALL DAY WASHOUT ON WEDNESDAY… Regardless of if your particular location has severe weather issues on Wednesday, there is a VERY high chance of rain across our area. It is pretty uncommon for me to say a day has a chance to be an “all day washout,” but Wednesday fits the qualifications for that. Heavy rain will be possible throughout the day. Flash flooding will be a concern, especially for inland areas of south Alabama. I expect temperatures to be stuck in the mid-60s all day Wednesday, except in areas near the coast that may be south of the warm front. Beach communities may have temperatures as high as the mid-70s Wednesday afternoon. Below are the projected rainfall totals through Thursday across our region.
